Videos Of The Week

Happy Easter! An Update On The Offshore Sector & A 30,000 Foot View Of The Macroeconomic Landscape To Start Q2 Off Right

I hope everyone had a Happy Easter weekend. Q2 starts this morning, and if March was any indication, financial markets could get interesting heading into the summer. It’s been a busy couple of weeks, but I’m looking forward to getting back to Boise this week so I can finish up a post that I have been working on for a couple weeks. As I’m sure you know by now, I’m excited about the next couple years for offshore oil services, so I wanted to include Esgian’s recent update on the sector. The other video is a discussion of the macroeconomic picture, and how things might be changing over the next couple years. If inflation flares up like I think it could, it will take a lot of investors by surprise.

Esgian Q1 Offshore Update

This was a good update on the current state of the offshore market. Half of the video covers jackups, while the other half covers deepwater. They discuss the situation for both fleets, going over day rate trends, changes in several regions, and how many ships and jackups are cold stacked. For anyone interested (or invested) in the offshore sector, you will enjoy this one.

Forward Guidance w/ Larry McDonald

This video was a good look at some of the big picture themes I have been talking about over the last year, including inflation (which seems to be heating up) and changing investment regimes. A 60/40 portfolio has worked great for decades, but I don’t think that will continue over the next several years. Forty years of declining interest rates and low inflation was Goldilocks for that portfolio construction, and I think we are coming off a cycle low in interest rates over the last couple years. We might get rate cuts this year, but I think the longer term trend for interest rates is higher.

In the video, they talk about inflation returning, asset classes that will perform better in a different environment, how investors are positioned, and chasing momentum in certain sectors higher. I have said a couple times that 2024 is going to set the table for the rest of decade, and I think we are close to a turning point for financial markets. We also have the election in the second half of the year which will be interesting to say the least. For readers that want a video on the macroeconomic landscape, this one’s for you.