Curious what you think the timeline is for establishing Federal Preemption? Also cutious what other "hail Mary" type delays may come up. Excellent writeup
Basically I would guess the company will eventually run out of patience if the CCC tries to drag things out for Sable restarting production. I don't think there are a bunch of other things that will come up (it's a possibility though), but I think we will probably see the stuff with the CCC resolved in October. I would guess less than a month, but more than a week (from when they filed the notice and all this crap hit the news). The timing on that is fuzzy and just an educated guess, so don't read too much into my opinion there.
What was the price of the 600,000 shares? It seems like it is a win win for Flores? The company bought "transportation assets" from Flores, who as the company CEO he will still have full access to use of those assets.
I think they valued the plane in the $14-15M range. That would put the price at approximately $24 per share, but the insider purchase SEC document didn't list a specific price.
This is uncertain, but I can give you an educated guess with some bullet points of what it might look like after production.
50 years or more of reserve life.
Potential to ramp from 30,000 barrels a day to 100,000 (this will take time).
Lots of natural gas (have heard some say an estimate of 1 trillion cubic feet of gas), and California gas gets a premium to Henry Hub.
If you get all of that, I don't think it's unreasonable to think they can drive production costs down towards $10/barrel as production ramps, but in short, the Santa Ynez Unit is an asset worth $10B or more in my opinion. Once production starts, a lot of uncertainty comes out of the stock and the year end reserve report might just be a cherry on top to the production restart announcement.
Curious what you think the timeline is for establishing Federal Preemption? Also cutious what other "hail Mary" type delays may come up. Excellent writeup
Basically I would guess the company will eventually run out of patience if the CCC tries to drag things out for Sable restarting production. I don't think there are a bunch of other things that will come up (it's a possibility though), but I think we will probably see the stuff with the CCC resolved in October. I would guess less than a month, but more than a week (from when they filed the notice and all this crap hit the news). The timing on that is fuzzy and just an educated guess, so don't read too much into my opinion there.
What was the price of the 600,000 shares? It seems like it is a win win for Flores? The company bought "transportation assets" from Flores, who as the company CEO he will still have full access to use of those assets.
I think they valued the plane in the $14-15M range. That would put the price at approximately $24 per share, but the insider purchase SEC document didn't list a specific price.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1831481/000119312524233379/d869613dsc13da.htm
Can you give us a hint as to the reserve report? Sounds like there may be potential upside.
This is uncertain, but I can give you an educated guess with some bullet points of what it might look like after production.
50 years or more of reserve life.
Potential to ramp from 30,000 barrels a day to 100,000 (this will take time).
Lots of natural gas (have heard some say an estimate of 1 trillion cubic feet of gas), and California gas gets a premium to Henry Hub.
If you get all of that, I don't think it's unreasonable to think they can drive production costs down towards $10/barrel as production ramps, but in short, the Santa Ynez Unit is an asset worth $10B or more in my opinion. Once production starts, a lot of uncertainty comes out of the stock and the year end reserve report might just be a cherry on top to the production restart announcement.