Videos Of The Week

Sable's $150M Equity Raise, Things Heating Up Between Israel And Lebanon & Debt Bubbles And A Look At The Big Picture

I know I have been talking a lot about Sable Offshore SOC 0.00%↑ lately, but I feel like I need to touch on the recent $150M equity raise (7.5M shares). Shares got smoked by more than 20% on Friday, and to be honest, I was surprised that they raised at $20 per share. I’m almost always against dilution, but I would think Sable could find institutions willing to pay $25 a share for a piece of the company. Raising at $20 a share when the stock was $28 on Thursday is frustrating to say the least, but I don’t think it materially changes where this thing is headed over the next couple years.

The good news is that between the cash already on the balance sheet, the early warrant exercises (which has already brought in approximately $65M in cash), and now the equity raise, Sable has plenty of ammo to restart production. The bad news is a 20% haircut in a day is painful no matter what the reason. I went from feeling like a genius on Thursday when I stayed up late to finish that post, and when I woke up on Friday I felt like an idiot. That’s just how it goes sometimes, but it is worth zooming out and realizing shares are basically at the same price as they were a couple weeks after the settlement announcement. We will see if the dip gets bought this week, but I have talked to a couple investors that were doing just that on Friday. I’ll be sitting tight, and I would still take the over on $30 for shares by year end.

Daniel Davis Deep Dive on Israel & Lebanon

From exploding pagers to other headlines, it has been a chaotic week between Israel and Lebanon. This video is from a couple days ago, but it looks like my gut feeling from last week that we would see something big in Ukraine or the Middle East before the election might be coming to pass. Things are escalating between Hezbollah and Israel, but we will see if other groups get involved. I think I might have to see if

Mark Wauck

has time to chat on a podcast soon, but it’s worth checking out his work and Daniel Davis Deep Dive videos to stay updated on what’s happening on a daily basis in Ukraine and the Middle East. You will definitely get a more accurate view of what is going on in the American proxy wars from them than you will from mainstream media.

On The Tape w/ Luke Gromen

This was the most interesting investing podcast I listened to this week. Luke touched on themes he has been focused on for a while, like why he thinks the gold to oil ratio will continue to blow out (I’m not sure I agree on this one). He also thinks oil will be range bound between $70 and $90, because oil below $70 for any length of time means production issues for shale, while $90 plus causes issues for certain powerful groups. Eventually the physical market will snap paper markets back to reality, but until then, I think $70 to $90 is probably a good guess on where oil will be. He also talked about Bitcoin, bonds, and other asset classes to keep an eye on. Hopefully I will be able to get him on the podcast in the future, but he’s always one of my favorites to listen to.

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Disclaimer

I have an investment in Sable Offshore. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.

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