Videos Of The Week
Quick Hits On Europe And The Middle East, Liberation Day And Tariffs & Two Videos On The Realpolitik Of Where Things Stand Today
I went in reverse order this week when it comes to the usual posts, but I wanted to write a quick piece to go with the videos of the week. I wrote a list of reasons I was worried about Europe, and they followed it up this week by going after Marine La Pen for “embezzlement” in France. She’s the head of the opposition party in France, and depending on how the trumped up charges (pun intended) play out, she might not be eligible to run against Macron in the next election.
One of the more interesting pieces I saw on the geopolitical front was the deployment of B-2s to Diego Garcia. There are now 6 B-2s on the island base, which people have pointed out is within range of Iran. Mark Wauck and others have made a compelling case that the deployment has more to do with the Houthis in Yemen than anything that might or might not be planned for Iran, but I’m not sure if the different military moves (additional carrier group, the B-2s, and the F-35s and Predator Drones) from the US in the Middle East are just for show.
Both of those regions are worth keeping an eye on, but the big news from so-called Liberation Day is Trump’s plan for tariffs. He started off with a 10% tariff on all imports, but tariffs will be higher on several countries/regions. China, Japan and Europe rightfully are getting the most attention, but one thing I found interesting is that most of the South American countries didn’t get hit with anything past the 10% mark. I’m curious to see how markets react (and other countries, specifically China), but things could get bumpy from here, especially for companies that have outsourced their entire supply chain.
Brent Johnson’s Milkshakes Podcast
This was the most interesting podcast I listened to this week, and it will be particularly timely after yesterday’s tariff news. This one was focused more on US-Canadian relations, but I think it was a good look at where things stand through the realpolitik lens. With all of the stuff going on recently, it’s important to look at the world as it is, not how we might want it to be. Canada has a vast resource base but it is not in the same league as the US when it comes to geopolitics, the economy, or the military. The US putting tariffs on Canada would have a bigger impact on the Canadian economy than Canadian tariffs would have on the US economy.
He points out that it doesn’t matter if you agree with Trump but you have to be aware of what is going on and what he might do. He compares it to Game of Thrones when it comes to the Panama Canal, Greenland, Mexico and Canada. For all of its problems, the US still has a ton of advantages, and he thinks there is a method to the madness when it comes to Trump 2.0. One of the big advantages the US has is that the world is addicted to debt, and it is addicted to US dollar debt.
Commodity Culture w/ Martin Armstrong
Martin Armstrong has been vocal about a larger conflict coming, and he thinks Europe is on its way to escalating things with Russia in Ukraine. He also has a hard time seeing a resolution in the Middle East, and he thinks the amount of gold flowing into the US in recent months isn’t a fluke. He talked a little bit at the end about the computer program he built called Socrates, which picks up on capital flows and money moving between countries, sectors, and stocks to make predictions on what is coming on a geopolitical stage and for markets.
If you have the time it’s worth watching the movie The Forecaster, but that was a fascinating look behind the scenes of several big events in financial markets from several decades ago, and his story on how he was railroaded by the Justice system. Getting back to the video, he talked about the historic feuds between nations in Europe, and why parts of the US elite are waking up to the fact that the US should leave NATO. He thinks we will see a correction in US equities, but not a crash. He was (rightly) very critical of European leaders, but this was a riveting conversation on the geopolitical chessboard as it stands today. If he’s right, the rest of 2025 could get very interesting.
Josh Young great quote from Milton Friedman. Your in a boat. One guy shoots holes in the Boat . You achieve nothing shooting holes in the boat to respond. Dont argue with me, argue with Milton Friedman.