Videos Of The Week
Biden Crashes And Burns, Geopolitical Events & Two Videos Worth Watching
It’s been a busy week and I think the next couple months are going to be very interesting. I think I might say that every week, but it seems like things are accelerating. I said at the beginning of the year that I think 2024 sets the table for the rest of the decade, and it looks like the geopolitical and political stage could get chaotic in the second half of the year. The Presidential debate (and the reaction to the debate) is just one sign of the winds of change shifting, and shifting quickly.
The Debate: Trump Is In The Driver’s Seat
Before I talk about the candidates, I will say that I was pleasantly surprised by the CNN moderators. I’m not one to compliment mainstream media in any way, but I thought they were pretty balanced. Other than that, it was the train wreck I was expecting. Apparently it took the debate on Thursday for top Democrats and the media to figure out what many saw in 2020: Biden’s not all there. I’m not a gambler on political events, but Trump’s odds of winning unsurprisingly shot higher after the debate.
In the space of two weeks, we went from the media talking about fact-checking videos of Biden to everyone throwing him under the bus after the debate. Do I think Biden is the nominee on election day? Probably not. Either way, the Democrats have to figure out where to go from here, and quickly. I think it’s safe to say that the knives will be out in the Democratic Party until the Convention in August.
I have no idea who the potential replacement would be, but the names that have been thrown around include Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton, and Michelle Obama. Each one has their own problems, but I honestly have no clue who ends up on the Democratic ticket. Apparently, Jill Biden doesn’t want to have Joe Biden step down, but the point is that there are a lot of ways the chaos could play out over the next couple months. It’s not like Trump was spectacular outside of a couple zingers, but he did a decent job. It was just overshadowed by Biden’s poor performance.
We have to keep waiting for Trump’s VP pick, but I don’t think he needs to be in a hurry to make a decision. Whatever happens, Thursday’s debate was a phase shift that puts Trump in the driver’s seat for the Presidential Election. After the debate, several news outlets floated the idea of using the 25th Amendment to remove Biden, which would only increase the chaos. Not even the Democrats seem to want Kamala Harris as President, but we will see how this game of “Would You Rather” plays out. The Republicans are also making noise about using the 25th Amendment to remove Biden, which would be a mistake in my opinion.
Never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake.
- Napoleon
Geopolitics
That’s enough pontificating on the debate and the election, but I figured I would start off with some good news in the last week on the geopolitical front. The first is that Julian Assange was freed. They made him plead guilty to some ridiculous charges, and apparently had some other conditions, but it’s good to see a real journalist get his freedom and head home to Australia. The second piece of good news is that the Chevron deference was overturned by the Supreme Court. It’s a long discussion that others have covered in more detail, but the condensed summary is that it will reduce the power of government agencies, which is a good thing in my opinion.
I’m afraid that’s where the good news ends. In the last week, it seems like things are starting to heat up in other areas around the world. We had more signs of US involvement in Ukraine, with a US supplied cluster munitions hitting a beach in Crimea. I’m not sure what the Russian response looks like, but they talked about the direct involvement of the US having consequences. We also had North Korea sending troops to Ukraine after Putin’s recent visit to North Korea.
In South America, there was a failed coup in Bolivia. I’m not sure if anything comes of it, but it is interesting to see in South America, which has been relatively quiet compared to Eastern Europe or the Middle East. Speaking of the Middle East, there has been more chatter about war in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia telling all of its citizens to leave the area. It doesn’t take an expert to see that Hezbollah is very different from Hamas, but from what I have seen it looks like things might be set to escalate between Israel and the surrounding countries. Vince Lanci summed it up beautifully in his one minute recap of current events on Twitter.
Esgian Offshore Update
With all of that going on, some of the investing stuff has taken a bit of a backseat over the last week. Esgian puts out good updates on the offshore sector, including fleet updates, day rates, and everything else going on in the sector. The bull market for offshore isn’t playing out as quickly as I originally thought, but I think this is something that will play out for several years. I think that Esgian isn’t nearly bullish enough on the long-term future of the sector, but it’s worth watching for anyone invested in or interested in offshore.
Bob Robotti: A Stock Picking Golden Age?
Anytime I see Bob Robotti show up on a podcast, I love listening to them because I know I’ll learn something new every time. He talks about his background, some of the companies he’s looking at, and different sectors of interest. He also talks about some of the big picture trends he sees, like the energy advantage of US companies in certain industries and the changes he has seen in value investing. He also talked about his thoughts on the indices and owning the “Magnificent Seven”, a topic I have touched on a couple times in the past. It’s worth a watch if you have the time.
Thanks for sharing, he seems like a very humble man