Videos Of The Week
Some Good News For Sable, A Weekly Update On Commodities And More & The State Of The Oil Market
On Friday, we got some good news that was unexpected for a lot of investors in Sable Offshore SOC 0.00%↑ with Judge Geck’s decision that lays out the path to a fully operational Santa Ynez Unit. I still haven’t seen a court filing this weekend other than the tentative ruling from Thursday, but I will be talking to some other investors and trying to get a feel for what the next several weeks look like. My early snap reaction is that we will probably see Sable progress towards full operations and I think early to mid-August is a good estimate for now, but the other side will almost certainly try to pull a rabbit out of the hat as soon as possible. I think the move on Thursday and Friday is just a taste of what is coming, but I’ll be keeping everyone updated on that front as we learn more.
John Polomny’s AIA Weekly Update
As always, John’s weekly updates are worth watching whenever they come out. This week he discussed inflation, the potential for “Project Zimbabwe”, and the Fed having room to cut interest rates in order to deal with interest costs on the debt. He also talked about the tailwinds for uranium and the nuclear industry, and where that could lead over the next several years. My favorite part (aside from the political section at the end) was the section on oil. He talked about Canadian energy still being out of favor, despite the fact that they are returning cash to shareholders. Oil demand is hitting another all time high, while Goldman is expecting US production declines.
He also got into tariffs, which surpassed $100B in revenue for 2025, so we are seeing some signs of success there. Another topic that might be of interest is gold, which has been consolidating for a couple months. At the same time, cash flow at many gold miners has exploded higher. I think the rest of the commodities are due to play catch up, but still think gold is heading higher in coming years. At the end, he talked about some of the rapidly approaching political changes we will probably see here in the US, including the white collar job losses that we will probably see as a result of AI. He also got into price increases for health insurance and college tuition, both of which are going to important issues moving forward.
MicDropMarkets Spaces - State of Energy Markets
For anyone interested in oil markets, this podcast is worth a listen. They talk about the long term supply and demand picture, going into Capex declines, inventories, and decline rates around the world. The IEA and OPEC statistical differences were another topic of interest, along with the IEA’s ideological view that oil demand will decline in the future. In the shorter term, they discussed the OPEC production quota increasing faster than production, and how that might impact oil markets. There are a lot of crosscurrents in the oil market right now, but this podcast focuses on some of the most important factors that will play a role in the oil market moving forward.
The tentative ruling: https://www.santabarbara.courts.ca.gov/tentative-ruling/25cv02247