Videos Of The Week

Tariffs Incoming, A Video On Oil & A Look At The Broader Commodities Sector

It looks like my prediction that potential tariffs would exclude Canadian energy was off the mark, as Trump announced tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. Mexico and Canada are the target of 25% tariffs, with a 10% tariff on Canadian energy. China is getting a 10% tariff, but it will be interesting to see what the impact is moving forward. It’s interesting to see some of the reactions to tariffs on social media, but I think Europe could be in the crosshairs if we see another round of tariffs. I’m not sure if these tariffs will stick or if they are primarily a negotiating tool, but 2025 is setting up to be an interesting year. If you want a more detailed primer on tariffs, I found this post below interesting.

Tariffs

Macro Voices w/ Rory Johnston

The first video this week sticks with the oil theme from last week. Rory leads off with his 2024 recap and talks about how oil inventories are currently low with increasing demand. He is expecting a supply deficit in 2025 even with the “drill, baby, drill” narrative around Trump’s second term. The White House can reduce the regulatory burden, but they can’t force drilling from private companies. He pointed out that the President has more influence over oil supply from Iran than he does oil supply from Texas. The video was recorded early last week, so they didn’t discuss the specific tariffs on oil, but they did talk about how tariffs could undercut a potential restart of the Keystone XL pipeline project. For readers interested in oil, you will enjoy this one.

The Market Huddle w/ Ole Hansen

This one isn’t specifically focused on oil, but it was an interesting look at the broader commodities sector. Ole talked about how the commodities market shifted in 2020, and how the globalization trend has started to reverse and its potential impact on commodities. He also talked about precious metals, which had a strong 2024 despite a couple different headwinds, and how we might see higher prices in agricultural commodities moving forward. They also spent some time talking about platinum group metals, and how dirt cheap they are relative to the other metals. They also discuss the tariffs and the potential reaction to them, but this was a broad update on some of the things to watch for investors interested in commodities.

If you take all the platinum ever mined and put it in an Olympic sized swimming pool, it only fills it up by roughly 20 cm.

- Ole Hansen

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