Videos Of The Week
More Geopolitical Risk, A Look At Financial Markets And China & A Primer On Small Caps
I’ll talk some more about this tomorrow, but there have been a couple events worth noting for readers focused on commodities. Sal’s a great follow on Twitter for all things shipping, but the focus from the last week in the Middle East is the tanker in the Red Sea that was blown up by the Houthis. We will see how this develops, but it looks like the explosion has led to a huge oil spill in the Red Sea. If that post is accurate, the spill is approximately 2,000 square kilometers. I have said before that geopolitical risk isn’t the primary driver for oil bulls, but it’s worth keeping an eye on for investors in the sector.
The other series of events is what looks like an unfolding disaster in the Kursk region of Russia. It sounded like peace talks were in process in Ukraine, which apparently was unacceptable to some people in the West. I have seen some people talking about Western mercenaries fighting alongside Ukrainians in the Kursk invasion, but it doesn’t look like things are going to wind down in Eastern Europe anytime soon. It’s worth following Daniel Davis and Mark Wauck to stay more up to date on current events. I think the push into Kursk will look foolish in hindsight, and some commentators have been vocal that Ukraine could be collapsing and the ill-advised push into Kursk has only accelerated things. There is also news that the Ukrainians hit Russian oil facilities at the port of Kavkaz on the Black Sea. The reaction to recent events from the oil market was a collective yawn. We will see if that changes at some point moving forward.
My podcast the other day with Vince Lanci is worth a listen if you haven’t gotten around to it yet, but we talked about oil and what he thinks could happen moving forward. In one of his recent posts, he pointed out that oil’s at a 40 year low in terms of gold. In short, I remain stubbornly bullish on oil. Sentiment on financial Twitter seems pretty bombed out, and I don’t think I’m a permabull where every single thing going on around the world is bullish oil, but I think what oil does over the next couple years could sneak up on a lot of investors. We might have to wait until after the election to see a real move up, but I think now’s a good time to be looking if you have a three to five year time horizon. The videos this week cover a different set of topics. The first focuses on broader markets, China, and the numerous risks to pay attention to moving forward. The second video will be more interesting for stock pickers with a focus on small caps and under the radar opportunities.
The Market Huddle w/ Louis Vincent Gave
This was my favorite video of the last week. Louis Vincent Gave is one of the guys I like to listen to because I always learn something new from his various appearances on the finance podcast circuit. He talks about the current environment being one of the most difficult to find compelling opportunities, which is something I agree with. They talk about the expectation for rate cuts and the rift between the East and the West, particularly with China. He’s bullish on Chinese assets, but I have a hard time getting excited about buying Chinese stocks despite the extremely cheap valuations.
I agree with his assessment that China probably isn’t going to invade Taiwan, but he does point out how exposed a company like Nvidia NVDA 0.00%↑ is if the worst case scenario plays out. If Taiwan Semiconductor TSM 0.00%↑ gets caught in the middle of geopolitical events, Nvidia is going to be in a tough spot. They also discuss commodities along with a detour into current events. It was a broad conversation and is worth a listen if you have the time.
The Investor’s Podcast w/ Ian Cassel
I enjoy listening to Ian Cassel when he shows up on the podcast circuit because his approach to investing makes sense to me. The approach of looking for things that are out of favor or under followed, and turning over as many rocks as possible is where individual investors have an advantage in my opinion. Ian is focused on very small stocks, which limits how much institutional money can play in the space. He talks about his path as an investor, his process for evaluating stocks, and running a concentrated portfolio. This one’s worth a watch if you are focused on small caps.
Great weekly content mate