Videos & Podcast Of The Week

A Changing Macro Environment, My Appearance On The ROI Podcast & A Follow Up On Our Geopolitical Conversation

It’s been an interesting week in financial markets, and it looks like things are heating up on the geopolitical stage. There are a lot of things going on in the Middle East right now, from Israel hitting the Iranian Embassy in Syria with a missile strike, to Saudi Arabia hiking prices for the Arab Light benchmark for May. It seems like oil has started to price in some of the rising geopolitical risk, with Brent Crude going from $82 to $90 in a month. I think we could see a pullback in oil in the near term after the recent rally (without further escalation in the Middle East), but I think oil bulls are in for a good second half of the year.

There were a lot of good videos this week, but I wanted to highlight a couple. The first was an interesting look at the big picture and market cycles, with a stock pick from Harris Kupperman thrown in as a bonus. The other video was my recent appearance on The ROI podcast, where we talked about a bunch of different topics, from current events to the offshore oil services and coal sectors. The last is a podcast that is a good follow up for readers interested in current events and geopolitics.

The Market Huddle w/ Paulo Macro & Kuppy

This was a very interesting video with Paulo Macro and Kuppy as guests. With Paulo, they talked about commodities, market cycles, and emerging markets. They also talked about the debt levels and other things they are watching right now. Kuppy came on later to discuss A-Mark Precious Metals AMRK 0.00%↑, which could be an interesting way to play a bull market in gold. He owns just over 6.5% of the company, so he’s obviously pretty bullish. I would definitely recommend listening for yourself, but the segment with Paulo left me thinking that would could be in for a stagflationary environment over the next couple years.

“Inflationary recessions create monetary illusions. What I’m really trying to say there is, an inflation where nominal growth is running 3-4%, but inflation is running 5-7%, feels very different to the person on the street, and to Wall Street, and elicits different types of behaviors in asset classes than the classic recession of minus 2% or minus 3% nominal.”

- Paulo Macro

The ROI Podcast

I made an appearance this week on The ROI Podcast, we covered a whole bunch of different topics. We talked about geopolitics and how the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East could impact oil prices. We also discussed the offshore sector and how inflation might impact new build costs and the day rates required to see new builds. Since Borr Drilling BORR 0.00%↑ got smoked last week, we also spent some time discussing the jackup space and what we’re expecting for the next couple years. We wrapped up by talking about coal, the asymmetry of the Valaris warrants, and precious metals.

Coffee And A Mike w/ Larry Johnson

For readers that are interested in geopolitics and what is going on in Ukraine and the Middle East, this will be a good follow up to what I talked about on The ROI Podcast. One of the problems with trying to stay informed is the sheer volume of propaganda flying around on a variety of topics. I know enough to know who not to listen to on geopolitics and current events, but I defer to subject matter experts who clearly follow the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East very closely. I follow Mark Wauck, Daniel Davis, and I enjoy listening to Larry Johnson when he pops up on podcasts that I follow. I’m not saying I agree with every single position they take or opinion they have, but I think it’s safe to say you will be better informed on what is going on in regions of the world like Ukraine and the Middle East listening to these three.