Video & Podcast Of The Week
Recent Events Flying Under The Radar, A Preview Of My Post Later This Week & A Pod On California Energy Policy
There are a couple things that caught my attention over the last week, but I’ll start with the social media spat between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. It’s not all that surprising to see some conflict between the two with the size of their egos, but there are more interesting things that happened in the last week. Yesterday, in response to protesters (rioters) to ICE raids in Los Angeles, Trump decided to send in the National Guard. The Trump administration has been mostly talk on the immigration and deportations front, so hopefully this is a sign that things might be about to change for the better on that front.
The other thing that seems to have flown under the radar for a lot of people that I wanted to highlight as far as current events is the escalation in Ukraine. “Ukraine” was apparently able to pull off a sophisticated drone attack to target Russian bombers (which aren’t involved in the conflict in Ukraine at all), right before the two countries were set to meet in Istanbul for peace talks. Not that difficult to connect dots back to Europe, if you believe that Trump didn’t know about the drone attack ahead of time. If you think Trump knew, then you can connect the dots back to Europe and the US. As far as staying up to date with events on the ground, I like to follow
and Simplicius (his post is linked below).Much worse than the attack itself, are simply the implications of it: that Russian strategic assets of the nuclear triad are once again under threat. This poses a severe risk to Russia’s parity with the US in the sphere of nuclear deterrence. Secondly, it proves that in its desperation, Ukraine is willing to risk escalating the situation dangerously even beyond potential US ‘red line’ restrictions.
Thirdly, the greatest danger lies in the fact that such an attack is virtually unstoppable by any nation on earth. Many have immediately jumped to ridiculing the Russian MOD from a variety of angles—for instance, not having built aircraft ‘shelters’ for the bombers. But in reality, it’s not altogether practical to do so for these large aircraft—even the US doesn’t do it…
- Ukraine's 'Unprecedented' Operation Spiderweb: Russia's 'Pearl Harbor'? Or Just More Soggy Silk?
The last thing I wanted to touch on briefly before getting into the videos is the recent move in precious metals, particularly platinum and silver. Silver has started to wake up, and I think we are still in the early innings. When silver moves higher, it can be violent, and I think we are probably headed for all time highs soon. That might not happen this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if silver keeps running from here. Platinum is also showing signs of life, and I think the run there is just getting started. Like silver, the moves in platinum can be explosive on the upside, and the fundamental story lines up for the next couple years. I bought some more physical platinum a couple weeks ago, and I think we could see silver and platinum continue to play catch up to gold in 2025 and into 2026.
Gold and silver both had very good years in 2024, and I wouldn’t be surprised if 2025 is another solid year. I still think gold is headed much higher over the next couple years, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see $3,000 and then some this year. Like gold, I think silver is on its way to all time highs in the next couple years, but probably not this year. $40 isn’t out of the question, but we will have to wait and see how that plays out. I do think some of the miners are interesting, but I have avoided them for a couple reasons.
The miners are usually crappy businesses, and they are basically a long gold or silver, short oil position in a stock, and they only seem to work for six months at a time. I do think the miners should have a solid 2025, but I’m watching from the cheap seats. The precious metal that I’m most bullish on is platinum, but that might take longer to play out than 2025. Eventually platinum prices are going way higher in my opinion, and if I were buying physical metals today, platinum would be at the top of the list. I own relatively small amounts of all three precious metals, but that’s my only position in the precious metals for now.
John Polomny’s AIA Weekly Update
The weekly update from John Polomny (author of
) will be a good preview to a post I will be putting out later this week on oil. He talks about several different commodities, but the section on oil was the most interesting for me. Equities in the commodities sector are the cheapest they have been in a century relative to the S&P 500. At the same time, gold to oil is just starting to bounce off an all time high (assuming you filter for negative oil prices in 2020). We are seeing capex cuts across the Permian, rig count continues to fall, and insider buying for Canadian energy stocks is near the highest levels in the last 5 years. The short version is that low prices are the cure for low prices. As always, I recommend staying until the end, because his political commentary is my favorite part of the weekly updates.COB Tuesday w/ Michael Mische
This podcast was one of the most interesting pods of the last week, primarily due to its focus on California energy policy. It’s no secret why I would like this one, but Michael Mische is a professor at USC who did a study on gasoline prices in the state. California currently has 1.6M BOE/day of refining capacity, and almost 20% of that capacity is expected to go offline with the expected closures of Valero’s VLO 0.00%↑ Benicia refinery and Phillips66 PSX 0.00%↑ Los Angeles refinery. The podcast touches on everything from state taxes and regulations, California oil production, oil imports, and the impact of the upcoming refinery closures.
The state excise tax on gas is currently 60 cents a gallon (it’s increasing again in July to 63 cents), and that’s far from the only additional cost from state regulators when it comes to gasoline. The state is already the most dependent state on foreign oil, and that will only get worse with the refinery closures. Another thing they touch on is the national security impact these policies have with the state’s various military bases, and how it impacts other states. They also supply states like Arizona and Nevada with their fuel needs.
There are a bunch of other interesting tidbits throughout the podcast, like the fact that the Benicia refinery produces 45% of Northern California’s asphalt. The model in his report lays out how gasoline prices could go as high as $8.43 a gallon by the end of 2026. They won’t just be more dependent on foreign oil, but also on imports of foreign gasoline. His report (linked below) is a quick read, but you might find it interesting. To be clear, I’m not saying that Sable coming online will singlehandedly fix California’s energy policy, but it would be a step in the right direction.
“Our in state production has fallen by 68%. However, our imports have grown by 712%…. We import over 62% of our oil from foreign, non-US sources…. The primary sources for the last decade have been Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Ecuador. Last year in 2024, Saudi imports fell while Guyana imports increased.”
Lately I’ve been noticing more of these low-profile events, like drone attacks or refinery shutdowns in California, that seem subtle on the surface but actually have a bigger impact on the macro landscape. Many people just haven’t realized it yet
1.In regards to silver. See the email I sent regarding an opportunity in Dead Idaho silver Jrs. They need audits.
2. If the us will do this for Ukraine. What do the Russians do if we bomb or Israel bombs Iran? The oil market is asleep.
3. What happens if us or Israel has pilots shot down? What if the Iranians get lucky and take out a us ship? 200 oil ??? 100$ silver!??