Video & Podcast Of The Week
Oil Offering A Contrarian Opportunity & Stories From The Trading Pits
It has been another busy week, but we are closing in on Christmas and I’m definitely looking forward to slowing down for a little bit and spending time with family. I’m working on the bones of the 2025 post, but I’m excited about that one and it should be an interesting follow up to last year’s post. I don’t think I will be able to write hundreds of pages like Dave Collum’s annual Year In Review (who I think will be coming on the podcast in January to discuss it), but it should at least give readers some food for thought on where things might be going next.
John Polomny AIA Weekly Update
I think John’s weekly updates are must watch for anyone interested in commodities and other out of favor investment opportunities. He talked about passive investing creating distortions (and why that might continue), and other investment themes he is watching outside of the US, including China and Europe. He also explained why he is for signs of political changes in Europe before positioning there. The most interesting part (at least for me) was the section of the video focused on oil.
I know have been beating the dead horse on oil for a while, but like John pointed out, when the consensus is that the world is in an oil glut. Sentiment on oil is as negative as it was during COVID if you look at positioning, which provides an interesting contrarian setup for 2025 in my opinion. If you think the Permian is in the process of peaking, and efficiency gains won’t be able to change the geology, or OPEC might not have 5M barrels of spare capacity, it might be worth doing some digging on the sector.
Oil Ground Up w/ John Johnston
This one was the most interesting podcast I listened to this week, and it wasn’t primarily about today’s oil markets. It was more about stories and experiences from John’s time trading oil in previous decades. It was a really interesting conversation about trading, market structure, and some of the things he focuses on for oil in particular. He discussed how things have changed as computers took over, what he watches in different markets, and shares stories about some of the people in the trading pits back in the day. This one is definitely worth a listen, especially if you’re like me and your only experience trading or investing is through an online brokerage account.
Id just like to see interviews of specialists in the sector. They are a sorely lacking resource in the commodity space.
Tommy Deepwater and Judd Arnold would be a great start.