2025: The Vibe Shift (Part 2)
What the Hell Is Going On: Violent Tide Rising, The Generational Divide, The Death Of DEI & Other Random Predictions
We are now two weeks from Trump being inaugurated, and 2025 is already off to a chaotic start. I’m optimistic about the direction of things, but we are going to have to deal some major changes on the horizon, and not just in 2025. On a cultural and societal level, I think we are going through a paradigm shift right now. This ties in a bit with the Vibe Shift, and the shifting Overton Window I talked about in Part 1, but the paradigm shift started in 2020, and it seems to be accelerating. I have heard it called the post-World War II consensus, the Nuremberg Regime, and the Boomer Truth Regime, but in a lot of ways, the West has been in a reality distortion bubble for 80 years.
In a lot of ways, the 1930s, the 1940s, and World War II was the founding mythology of Western society, and I think that is in the process of crumbling before our eyes. This might just be par for the course for a Fourth Turning, but over the next decade I think we will the Overton Window shift on a variety of societal and cultural issues. One of those that I covered in Part 1 was immigration. I’m going to bounce around a bit, but today I’ll be writing about the increase in frequency and scale of violent events, the Generational Divide, the death of DEI, and a variety of topics on health and medicine. We aren’t even a week into 2025, but after the way the year has started, I have to lead off Part 2 with the obvious question.
What The Hell Is Going On?
Civilization is like a thin layer of ice upon a deep ocean of chaos and darkness.
- Werner Herzog
One of the predictions I have talked about privately is that I think we will see an increase in the frequency and magnitude of violent outbursts across the West, and I think the start of 2025 isn’t a fluke. Jason Mironchuck, who I’m hoping to have on the podcast at some point, has started calling it the Age of the Vengeful Son. It seems like countries across the West are sitting on a political powder keg right now, and I think we are going to see more bursts of violence moving forward. I think these will generally fall into four buckets: vigilante justice or targeted acts of violence, terrorism, random acts of violence, and other events that just make you ask “What the hell is going on?”
This is one of the places you can see the reverse fishbowl dynamic of social media that I talked about in Part 1. In the last week, we had the New Orleans truck attack, a bomb threat in South Carolina, a shooting in Washington, D.C. and one at a nightclub in Queens, and the weird Cybertruck bombing in front of Trump Tower with a story that makes absolutely no sense. You can see it all on Twitter, in near real time. Just about everything I have seen on the Cybertruck bombing in Vegas with the Green Beret creates more questions than answers. You have a Special Forces member (who was on a military reality TV show) with a Cybertruck, filled with an IED made of fireworks, who supposedly shot himself with a Desert Eagle before detonation, complete with a singed military ID and passport (which reminds me of another famous event).
Then, he might or might not have sent an email to a recent guest on the Shawn Ryan Show (“former” Navy SEAL and CIA), which talked about Chinese “gravitic” drones, US war crimes in Afghanistan, and Iranian agents here in the US with surface to air missiles, among other things. If gravity powered drones were a thing, I would think we would have seen a SPAC for it by now. In all seriousness, I have no doubt that foreign agents have made their way into the US over the last four years with the state of the border, but I have a hard time believing that Iran is interested in kicking things off with the US via an attack on US soil. Basically, the whole thing smells and I think it’s smart to take all of this stuff with a grain of salt. If you want more on the Las Vegas bombing, and why that Shawn Ryan Show episode might be predictive programming, you can listen to the most recent Coffee and a Mike episode with EM Burlingame.
I think we are in a durable bull market in so-called conspiracy theories, which is a term invented by the CIA by the way. I try to avoid information overload and take a skeptical view, or a distrust but verify approach to events like this. The terrorist and random acts don’t require a deep dive, but I do think they will increase in frequency as well unfortunately. I do want to spend some time on the vigilante justice or targeted acts of violence though. One of the recent acts of targeted violence happened in 2024, with the killing of the United Healthcare CEO by Luigi Mangione.
I’m not going to opine on the shooting, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more targeted violence or vigilanteism in 2025 and beyond. This goes back to the breakdown of the legal system, the wealth divide, and the frustration of different parts of society with the way the system is working right now. We will see if that means more CEOs will be targeted, or if we will graduate to politicians and other powerful figures. There is an interesting split in opinion on the shooting based on ages, which brings me to the Generational Divide topic.
Generational Divide: One Rises, Another Falls
Never forget: When you are arguing with a Leftist or a Boomer, you are actually arguing with the TV — and the TV cannot hear you and it does not care.
- Corey Mahler
I’ll lead this section off with the NAXALT fallacy disclaimer: not all Boomers are like that. I know at least one reader started down that path, but I think the Generational Divide is a topic that America and the West will have to deal with over the next decade. I think we are going to see the post-war consensus get weaker and weaker as time goes on, and part of that is due to the generational transition happening now. The Generational Divide is one of three main divides we have today, along with the racial divide and the divide between men and women. To some extent, all of these things are tied together, so I will focus primarily on the generational aspect. If we start with the economic side of things, it’s hard to say that the American Dream is alive and well for younger generations.
Upward social mobility continues to decline, housing affordability is at record lows, and finding a woman worth keeping (or a man, but I assume most of my readers are men) is like trying to find a needle in the haystack these days. The American Dream was always a family and house with a white picket fence in a safe neighborhood, typically supported by the father’s income so the mother could stay home and raise the kids. If you worked hard you could succeed, because America’s the land of opportunity. Over the last couple decades, that is truer depending on which demographic boxes you check, but I’ll save that part for later. It’s also wanting a better life for future generations, and Millennials and Zoomers are the first American generations with deteriorating standards of living.
The median family income in the US has gone from 10K in 1971 to 55K today, a gain of 5.5x. However, the median cost of a car has gone from 4K to 48K, an increase of 12x. The median cost of a house has gone from 25K to 357K, an increase of 14x. The median cost of an Ivy League college has gone from 3K a year to 87K, an increase of 29x. The average cost of healthcare per person has gone from $400 to $15,000, and increase of 37x. Basically, the average person in the US is worse off today than in 1971. So much for "progress".
In 1971, a gallon of gas cost 36 cents. Today $3.00. Up 8x. A slice of pizza in NY cost 25 cents. Today $5. Up 20x. A Big Mac cost 65 cents. Today $6.99. Up 11x. Fine dining for 2 cost $30. Today $300. Up 10x. Stanford cost $2,400 a year. Today $66,000. Up 26x. A Dental check up cost $20. Today $200. Up 10x. A 2000 sq. foot house cost $27K. Today 425K. Up 14x. A 5 star hotel cost $60. Today $700. Up 11x. A doctor home visit cost $20. Today $300. Up 15x. A Ford F100 pickup truck cost $2400. Today the same truck (the 150) cost $36K. Up 15x. A Porsche 911 cost $8000. Today $120K. Up 15x. No matter how you look at it cost of living is up 10-20x.
I can’t lay all of the blame at the feet of one generation, because some of these things were set in motion by the Greatest Generation and the Silent Generation. I do think residential real estate will get more affordable in coming decades, especially if we can get our act together on immigration and deportations. Older Americans are projected to sell 9M homes or more over the next decade as they pass on, but I’m not interested in owning nothing and being happy, and I’m definitely not the only one.
It’s not just an economic mess that younger generations will have to clean up with debt levels continuing to rise. We will have to deal with the geopolitical dumpster fire left behind by the gerontocracy. Whether they are just too old, drunk, or lost in a retirement home, they have left us on the doorstep of multiple foreign conflicts, with 36T (and counting) of national debt, not to mention the three headed monster of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, which also have trillions of unfunded liabilities. I always found Boomers had an interesting view on those programs.
They all pretend to be capitalists until you mention the Big Three of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. I know it’s basically one of the third rails of politics, but I think that is going to start to change as well over the next decade. Just because you paid into one of the world’s greatest Ponzi schemes for decades doesn’t mean you deserve to get anything out of it. Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid aren’t going anywhere anytime soon, but even the financially illiterate under 40 know that we won’t see a penny from any of them.
This is something that could be easily fixed if there was an opt out on all three programs. If you don’t pay into any of them, there won’t be any money waiting for you in later years. At the end of the day, someone will be left holding the bag on the debt and the entitlement programs, and if the gerontocracy has any say, it will be younger generations holding the bag, just like it has been for the last couple decades. It is worth asking a simple question: what happens to societies that subsidize the old at the expense of the young?
Whether it’s right or wrong, a lot of people under the age of 40 think they got sold out by older generations. It’s not just the hollowed out economy, the 2007-2008 financial circus and bailouts, and a decade of ZIRP on top of the ridiculous debt levels. It was also the beginning of the slippery slope on the societal side. Whether it’s egalitarianism, feminism, abortion, immigration/invasion, perpetual warfare, poisoning the food and water supply, or the growth of the pharmaceutical mafia (more on these two later), a lot of the issues that are coming to a head today started decades ago. Boomers also gave us the gift of “diversity is our strength”, which leads me into my next topic.
The Death Of DEI: It’s About Time
Never attribute to stupidity that which is adequately explained by malice.
- Hanlon’s Razor (modified for the 21st Century)
This is another topic where the Overton Window has already started to shift, but I think the DEI agenda really ramped up after 2010. Whether it was affirmative action, disparate impact, or just flat out discriminatory hiring practices, the meritocracy that might have been real decades ago has been dead for at least 15 years. Colleges and businesses that fell in line with the DEI agenda basically decided that white men need not apply. Older generations might argue, or say it hasn’t been that bad, but over the last 10-15 years, it has been that bad, especially for the positions to get your foot in the door and start working up the so-called career ladder.
This cycle continues to play out on a variety of different topics, but for the better part of two decades, the focus has been on what boxes people check instead of how competent they are. I do think we are past the peak of this insanity, and you have seen companies like Boeing BA 0.00%↑ start to get rid of DEI departments. If it wasn’t frustrating enough, Bloomberg decided it was a good idea to brag about large companies and their hiring practices.
There are countless examples (#1, #2, #3, #4) of this, and I have seen it from my friends and people around me, whether it was in college or public accounting. Eventually if you get enough anecdotes, it’s hard to pretend it isn’t happening. So the “diversity is our strength” narrative is definitely going into a bear market, but trying to pretend that people aren’t tribal (it’s hard wired) is just another example of the reality distortion bubble across the West. Is diversity our strength if it leads to lower birth rates, lower GDP growth, and increases in crime?
There’s a reason the H-1B topic blew up on social media. There’s a reason the topic of grooming gangs in England blew up on social media. To translate from the Orwellian doublespeak, diversity is code for “not straight white men”, and grooming gangs is code for “migrant rape gangs”. If you look at the fruits, it’s not difficult to come to the conclusion that DEI is certainly a poisonous tree. People aren’t just economic inputs that you can swap out for a cheaper input from another country, and new people coming to America (or the West) don’t automatically assimilate and adopt our language, culture, and values because we have magic dirt.
Health Topics: Time For The Tin Foil Hat
You may live to see man-made horrors beyond your comprehension.
- Nikola Tesla
This section doesn’t fit in neatly with anything else, but I wanted to write about several health topics because I think food and medicine will be something that becomes a bigger focus in the US as well as globally, and not just in 2025. I think the Overton Window on health will continue to shift on a variety of health topics, from what is in the food, the safety of vaccines (not just the COVID shot), Ozempic side effects, and potential cures to a variety of ailments. I’m not a doctor, but if you’ll allow me to put my tin foil hat on for a bit, we can get right into it.
I know that what happened with COVID basically got memory holed, but I think the COVID story is far from being done. I could rant on this one for a long time, but I will try to keep it tight. Basically, I look at the COVID virus, shots, masks, and lockdowns as a massive science experiment on a scale that is hard to believe. I want to focus specifically on the so-called vaccines, because I think some of the health consequences of the jab that was “safe and effective” are going to keep popping up in 2025, and become more obvious as time goes on.
I think we will hear more about turbo cancers, heart issues and heart attacks, as well as potential fertility issues as a result of the jab. Of course the manufacturers got total immunity from legal liability from the government, but I’m not sure how that might hold up in a fraud case. The point is that I think we are going to be hearing about the side effects and long-term health impacts of the jab for years to come. This might not be a popular opinion, but time will tell if the potential side effects become more widely known.
So I think Moderna MRNA 0.00%↑ might be in a tough spot at some point in the next decade, but I do think there is some good news on the health front. I think we will continue to see more information about Ivermectin as a potential cancer treatment. I have started to see several studies about Ivermectin (one suggested combining it with Mebendazole and Fenbendazole) being an effective treatment for cancer. It has been used for decades (more than 3B doses worldwide), won a Nobel Prize, and it happens to be affordable. So much for being a horse dewormer.
While COVID was a rough time, I think it did wake a lot of people up on a variety of topics. One of the bigger Overton Window shifts that I think is coming has to with the childhood vaccine schedule. I think we will see people start to question all vaccines, not just the COVID shot. I’ll leave it up to other people to figure out if vaccines cause autism, or food allergies, or other ailments that have continued to increase as the number of shots that kids receive on recommended vaccine schedule has exploded since Reagan signed the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act to give vaccine manufacturers immunity for vaccine injury claims. Just like with DEI, once you get enough anecdotes about vaccines leading to autism, it’s hard to ignore what might be going on.
It’s a rabbit hole for sure, but it would be interesting to compare to an unvaccinated control group like the Amish. Another rabbit hole that I have started down more recently is the potential health impact of Ozempic (and other GLP-1 drugs). For many, the weight loss is temporary, and I think we are going to start hearing more about other potential side effects. I have seen several things on gastrointestinal issues, muscle loss, and bone density issues. This might or might not lead to heart issues (the heart is a muscle), and I have also seen people talking about “Ozempic Face”, or the gaunt look with increased signs of aging that can happen from taking these drugs. We will see if this has any impact on companies like Eli Lilly LLY 0.00%↑ or Novo Nordisk NVO 0.00%↑, but neither of those stocks look particularly cheap at first glance.
I think people would have a better time experimenting with a Carnivore diet for a month or two if they wanted to lose weight, but that brings me to my final health topic: the state of the food and water supply. In short, it’s not pretty and I think it’s a huge contributor to the poor health of the average American. I’m not a huge fan of fluoride in the water (it’s worth switching to fluoride free toothpaste in my opinion), or the estrogen from birth control pills and other sources that filters back into the water supply. The food supply isn’t any better, with herbicides like Glyphosate (which is banned in many countries in Europe) and fertilizers (stick with organic food if you can) that have an impact on health.
The food itself isn’t much better, with a bunch of processed food complete with soy, seed oils, and/or food dyes. It’s tough to avoid all of these things, but I think the discussion on what is healthy and what isn’t when it comes to food and water is just getting started. I have dialed in my diet over the last couple years where it’s basically meat, eggs, dairy, and organic fruit, but I think it’s worth taking the time to try to avoid the harmful ingredients that many Americans eat on a daily basis. Some of these health topics might be controversial, but I think the Overton Window shift on health, medicine, and food is going to accelerate in 2025 and beyond.
Conclusion
I’ll keep my tin foil hat on for a little bit longer before wrapping up. My last prediction that is completely random is that we will see some movement on the P Diddy / Jeffrey Epstein story. We will see if that means arrests or just new developments on the story, but the child trafficking and blackmail situation is one of the darker rabbit holes in geopolitics, and I think 2025 might shine a little bit of light on the situation. I wrote last year that it feels like something big is coming in 2024, and last year certainly set the table for the rest of the decade. I have that feeling again now that something big is coming in 2025. It feels a little bit like a geopolitical powder keg, and everyone is waiting to see who is going to make the first move.
I think all the topics I wrote today will be issues in 2025, but I think there’s a good chance that each one will last for more than a year. A lot of these topics are connected, and it’s hard to get a comprehensive view of the world or financial markets without paying attention to the geopolitical chessboard. America happens to be center stage, and I think we are going through a paradigm shift in more ways than one. I’m optimistic that they will be changes for the better, but there are plenty of things that could go wrong. I’ll be back as soon as possible with by 2025 outlook for financial markets, but I wanted to do this one first to set the table. There is a lot of uncertainty in the world right now, but I am confident about one thing: we certainly live in interesting times.
Excellent. Loved every bit of this one!