Apparently the platforms were originally capable of pumping to Floating Storage vessels. I don't have the article that mentions that right now, but the FPSOs were pictured at
Depends on what you expect for OSFM but if you think approval is coming shares are cheap today. Doesn't mean they won't go lower until we get that news though.
Seems like we’re trying to give newsom an excuse for approval. However if cali fucks this up then maybe we can get the oil from federal waters and a takings claim on the pipeline? 🤞🙏
Yeah, it gives Newsom an out. Plan B is some form of federal involvement, an FPSO and you don't have to deal with the state again, and then takings claim for the onshore facility and the pipeline. It wouldn't be a kayfabe takings claim either like the CCC suit.
All while a FPSO would be pumping oil. Case wouldn't be that complicated with the Consent Decree. Not my base case, but oil flows one way or another imo.
Too early to know with any certainty, and not something I think will happen. Will dig into it in more detail if it comes to that, but it's a big chunk of spending up front and will be added cost as far as opex.
Sorry Ben, is the below the logic points you refer to?
"...If Newsom wanted to try to kill Sable by now, he would have, and now he has a choice to make. He can either have the Fire Marshal give the approval and start the 10 day countdown (Plan A), or he can take his chances with the political circus that would come with Plan B.
If you look at the incentives, I don’t see why this thing ends up going down the route of federal involvement, an FPSO, and a new takings claim, but that’s certainly a possibility if the Fire Marshal doesn’t sign off soon. "
If they planned to release the OSFM, then why would they add more bumps on the road? UNLESS there are other things to be negotiated with the Federal / Republican gov.
FPSO rumblings give Newsom political cover to sign off. Newsom can basically say that his choices are pipeline or takings claim / federal involvement / FPSO (additional structure / tankers off the coast), and wash his hands of it.
"Newsom got his agenda through, and the language in there gives Sable a window to get the Santa Ynez Unit up and running before the bill goes into effect."
What is the language you are referring ? The language that implies SOC can go ahead (assuming OSFM signs off).
Basically the bill goes into effect on January 1, 2026, where additional rules would be in place that would be an issue for Sable if they aren't producing by then.
I just think his consultants follow the Biden rule of releasing news you want buried on a Friday afternoon.
That's why I get worried if this thing drags on after that. I do feel like any behind the scenes negotiations are requiring a patdown and wire check, just like the gangsters do. Because that is the type of negotiations that would be going on at this point.
Apparently the platforms were originally capable of pumping to Floating Storage vessels. I don't have the article that mentions that right now, but the FPSOs were pictured at
https://www.aukevisser.nl/exxon/id1231.htm
The question is at what price are we willing to scoop up more shares and when?
Depends on what you expect for OSFM but if you think approval is coming shares are cheap today. Doesn't mean they won't go lower until we get that news though.
https://x.com/jasonstrom_/status/1971571170697990299?s=42
Seems like we’re trying to give newsom an excuse for approval. However if cali fucks this up then maybe we can get the oil from federal waters and a takings claim on the pipeline? 🤞🙏
Yeah, it gives Newsom an out. Plan B is some form of federal involvement, an FPSO and you don't have to deal with the state again, and then takings claim for the onshore facility and the pipeline. It wouldn't be a kayfabe takings claim either like the CCC suit.
Takings claim could take years though..
All while a FPSO would be pumping oil. Case wouldn't be that complicated with the Consent Decree. Not my base case, but oil flows one way or another imo.
What is the estimated extra cost and/or capex with FPSO?
Too early to know with any certainty, and not something I think will happen. Will dig into it in more detail if it comes to that, but it's a big chunk of spending up front and will be added cost as far as opex.
Newsom knows the best time to release the OSFM. After close on Friday.
He'd have preferred the midday news conference if he was going to take a stand against Sable.
Come Monday morning though, and still no approval. All bets would be on Monday afternoon.
After that...
FYI, I removed my stops today and am doubling down if they crash the close.
I already lost money on this sh*tshow by just being out of metals with my investment. Worth the risk at this point.
We will see. Logic points to Newsom and California letting this thing through, just hard to have a strong view on timing.
Sorry Ben, is the below the logic points you refer to?
"...If Newsom wanted to try to kill Sable by now, he would have, and now he has a choice to make. He can either have the Fire Marshal give the approval and start the 10 day countdown (Plan A), or he can take his chances with the political circus that would come with Plan B.
If you look at the incentives, I don’t see why this thing ends up going down the route of federal involvement, an FPSO, and a new takings claim, but that’s certainly a possibility if the Fire Marshal doesn’t sign off soon. "
If they planned to release the OSFM, then why would they add more bumps on the road? UNLESS there are other things to be negotiated with the Federal / Republican gov.
FPSO rumblings give Newsom political cover to sign off. Newsom can basically say that his choices are pipeline or takings claim / federal involvement / FPSO (additional structure / tankers off the coast), and wash his hands of it.
Makes sense. Thanks. One more question if you can please clarify?
From here: https://www.kontrariankorner.com/p/videos-of-the-week-fb9
"Newsom got his agenda through, and the language in there gives Sable a window to get the Santa Ynez Unit up and running before the bill goes into effect."
What is the language you are referring ? The language that implies SOC can go ahead (assuming OSFM signs off).
Basically the bill goes into effect on January 1, 2026, where additional rules would be in place that would be an issue for Sable if they aren't producing by then.
I just think his consultants follow the Biden rule of releasing news you want buried on a Friday afternoon.
That's why I get worried if this thing drags on after that. I do feel like any behind the scenes negotiations are requiring a patdown and wire check, just like the gangsters do. Because that is the type of negotiations that would be going on at this point.