Just a quick few comments. I don't want this to become a massive political argument.
1. Republicans under Trump have become a massive protectionist party.
They have abandoned free trade. They push fair trade. Milton blew out this out
of the water by saying if you are in a boat and your passengers shoot holes in the boat, your response would not be to also shoot holes in the boat.
2. Republicans have also abandoned Friedman and Reagan on i!legal immigration. I can't think of a way to increase inflation better than mass deportation. You can cherry pick all you any want but Friedman was for illegal immigration, as long a was it was illegal. Expand guest worker programs and get the mob out of it.
3. Trump was unwilling to allow Powell to prick our bubble in 2018 when he tried to raise interest rates. Trump threatened to fire him and Powell relented.
Trump is partly responsible for underlying inflation today. Dislocation from Covid,
7 trillion debt increase, first Covid bailout. All under Trump though its effects came after he was long gone. Lucky for him.
4. I am not going to defend Biden. Let me say I agree with Larry Summers criticisms of the Democratic party.
I'm not a huge Trump fan either. I didn't like his vaccine policy, among several other things. With that said, the US is in a way better position with Trump in the Oval Office than Biden. I'm not surprised on Friedman's position on immigration given his background, but immigration is one of the biggest problems facing America right now. I'm not going to write an essay on it here, but my opinion on it can be summed up as "import the third world, become the third world."
Despite the boomer worship of Reagan, a lot of his policies led us to the situation we are in today (and not just on immigration). Deportations might increase inflation, but you would probably also see wages for heritage Americans increase with it, and more affordable real estate prices, among other effects. Trump is far from ideal (but we don't live in an ideal world), and I'm not going to defend some of his crappy policies. With that said, I'd take him and all of his faults over another Biden term.
1. Illegal workers can also, increase profits for employers and cause wages for more skilled workers to increase. In the same way machines can actually lead to increased demand for more labor.
Our social security funding problems mean the us needs more labor supply.
2. Capitalism has not achieved much success in Central America.
Putting up a wall, plus mass deportation will just need lead to revolution and more Venezuela's in Guatemala, Honduras , El
Salvador. 20% of Honduras GDP is remittances. Trump is being short sighted. The long term consequences will mean an Iraq war in the jungles of Central America.
3. Our fiscal problems will not be solved by Trumps law and order.
We are second in the world in prison population and that costs money. How many more does he want to lock up. How do you fund without raising taxes. Trump is more fiscally irresponsible than Biden.
4. January 6 is the difference. Al Gore fought honourably when the election was stolen. Trump crossed a line and there is no excuse.
Trump can't be judge , jury and candidate in deciding he won an election. What if Biden says the election was stolen in 2025? Civil war means China walks into Taiwan.
5. Andrew Yang for president, Chris Christie for vice president. Milton Friedman was for the negative income tax. Yangs Vat tax would raise valuable revenue by taxing consumption and encouraging saving and investment.
6. It was the Republicans that insisted on counting mail ins last.
When it was done the opposite way in Ohio, Democrats were in the lead until in person voting pulled Trump ahead. Nothing suspicious.
7. The last time the Republicans won the popular vote was 2004.
Before that you have to go back to 1988. Polls were against Trump.
Trump lost the party a huge amount of house seats in 2018 and no real gains in 2022. Republican senate candidates outperformed Trump in 2020.
Same arguments of Trump were used by the Democrats plus Klan in keeping out immigrants in the 1920s, 1880s,1840s.
What if Trumps father was denied, or look into Jared Kushner family. Melania?
How many illegals were used by Trump the business man?
As for asylum the us apologized by forcing a ship the Saint Louis filled with Jews escaping Hitler to be sent back.
Okay thanks for the spirited discussion. Thanks for that. I hope this makes us think. Analysis is good mental exercise which may have spin off value in analysing investments.
Here is our joint problem. To the Republicans every crisis is January 1981. To the Democrats every crisis is January 2009 or March 1933. I will admit we are closer to January 1981 this time.
Republicans are now calling the democrats socialists or worse.
I believe the New Deal policies prevented a communist or fascist revolution. Austrian economics refuses to acknowledge the political side effects of do nothing policies.
Go investigate the share the wealth program advocated by Huey Long. He was popular in Louisiana long after his death.
On the other hand, I will admit populist policies have devastated Argentina. Argentina did money printing, taxes and high tariffs.
I am encouraged by the new president , and have bought Argentine equities. I think he is a potential Ronald Reagan.
I am even considering retiring there but will probably choose Chile.
Just a quick few comments. I don't want this to become a massive political argument.
1. Republicans under Trump have become a massive protectionist party.
They have abandoned free trade. They push fair trade. Milton blew out this out
of the water by saying if you are in a boat and your passengers shoot holes in the boat, your response would not be to also shoot holes in the boat.
2. Republicans have also abandoned Friedman and Reagan on i!legal immigration. I can't think of a way to increase inflation better than mass deportation. You can cherry pick all you any want but Friedman was for illegal immigration, as long a was it was illegal. Expand guest worker programs and get the mob out of it.
3. Trump was unwilling to allow Powell to prick our bubble in 2018 when he tried to raise interest rates. Trump threatened to fire him and Powell relented.
Trump is partly responsible for underlying inflation today. Dislocation from Covid,
7 trillion debt increase, first Covid bailout. All under Trump though its effects came after he was long gone. Lucky for him.
4. I am not going to defend Biden. Let me say I agree with Larry Summers criticisms of the Democratic party.
I'm not a huge Trump fan either. I didn't like his vaccine policy, among several other things. With that said, the US is in a way better position with Trump in the Oval Office than Biden. I'm not surprised on Friedman's position on immigration given his background, but immigration is one of the biggest problems facing America right now. I'm not going to write an essay on it here, but my opinion on it can be summed up as "import the third world, become the third world."
Despite the boomer worship of Reagan, a lot of his policies led us to the situation we are in today (and not just on immigration). Deportations might increase inflation, but you would probably also see wages for heritage Americans increase with it, and more affordable real estate prices, among other effects. Trump is far from ideal (but we don't live in an ideal world), and I'm not going to defend some of his crappy policies. With that said, I'd take him and all of his faults over another Biden term.
1. Illegal workers can also, increase profits for employers and cause wages for more skilled workers to increase. In the same way machines can actually lead to increased demand for more labor.
Our social security funding problems mean the us needs more labor supply.
2. Capitalism has not achieved much success in Central America.
Putting up a wall, plus mass deportation will just need lead to revolution and more Venezuela's in Guatemala, Honduras , El
Salvador. 20% of Honduras GDP is remittances. Trump is being short sighted. The long term consequences will mean an Iraq war in the jungles of Central America.
3. Our fiscal problems will not be solved by Trumps law and order.
We are second in the world in prison population and that costs money. How many more does he want to lock up. How do you fund without raising taxes. Trump is more fiscally irresponsible than Biden.
4. January 6 is the difference. Al Gore fought honourably when the election was stolen. Trump crossed a line and there is no excuse.
Trump can't be judge , jury and candidate in deciding he won an election. What if Biden says the election was stolen in 2025? Civil war means China walks into Taiwan.
5. Andrew Yang for president, Chris Christie for vice president. Milton Friedman was for the negative income tax. Yangs Vat tax would raise valuable revenue by taxing consumption and encouraging saving and investment.
6. It was the Republicans that insisted on counting mail ins last.
When it was done the opposite way in Ohio, Democrats were in the lead until in person voting pulled Trump ahead. Nothing suspicious.
7. The last time the Republicans won the popular vote was 2004.
Before that you have to go back to 1988. Polls were against Trump.
Trump lost the party a huge amount of house seats in 2018 and no real gains in 2022. Republican senate candidates outperformed Trump in 2020.
Same arguments of Trump were used by the Democrats plus Klan in keeping out immigrants in the 1920s, 1880s,1840s.
What if Trumps father was denied, or look into Jared Kushner family. Melania?
How many illegals were used by Trump the business man?
As for asylum the us apologized by forcing a ship the Saint Louis filled with Jews escaping Hitler to be sent back.
Okay thanks for the spirited discussion. Thanks for that. I hope this makes us think. Analysis is good mental exercise which may have spin off value in analysing investments.
Here is our joint problem. To the Republicans every crisis is January 1981. To the Democrats every crisis is January 2009 or March 1933. I will admit we are closer to January 1981 this time.
Republicans are now calling the democrats socialists or worse.
I believe the New Deal policies prevented a communist or fascist revolution. Austrian economics refuses to acknowledge the political side effects of do nothing policies.
Go investigate the share the wealth program advocated by Huey Long. He was popular in Louisiana long after his death.
On the other hand, I will admit populist policies have devastated Argentina. Argentina did money printing, taxes and high tariffs.
I am encouraged by the new president , and have bought Argentine equities. I think he is a potential Ronald Reagan.
I am even considering retiring there but will probably choose Chile.