Podcasts Of The Week
Podcasts Of The Week
Oil Capitulation, The Geopolitical Mess & Three Podcasts Worth Checking Out
There were a lot of interesting podcasts that I listened to this week, but a couple are worth mentioning to readers. One focuses on commodities and geopolitics, another looks at the impact of AI and data centers moving forward, and the last one is my appearance on Gold Goats ‘n Guns to talk about the offshore oil services sector. Commodities had a rough week last week, with oil getting smoked after the OPEC meeting. It seems like short term noise to me, but I would point readers to
’s recent post that goes into it in more detail. It was a big sentiment swing, and a huge swing in positioning:More amazing still is that this past week was the single biggest weekly flush of the Brent oil managed money net long position (-102k contracts) in the history of the data going back to 2011…. A friend of mine tracks length among all oil futures contracts + products (gasoline, diesel, gasoil etc), and we are through the Covid and Dec23 lows here too.
- PauloMacro
Geopolitical Winds Of Change
I have said a couple times that I thought Ukraine would be winding down by the end of the year. With some of the things I have been seeing lately, it looks more and more like we could see NATO get involved directly with Russia. Whether it’s targeting Russian nuclear early warning radars, or long range attacks with US weapons into Russia, it looks like things are trending in the wrong direction in Eastern Europe. NATO getting involved directly would be a huge mistake in my opinion, but it seems like the West is determined to continue down this ill-advised path.
We also had US weapons being used in a strike on a Palestinian refugee camp to free four Israeli hostages, which killed 210 people and left more than 400 wounded. What is going on in the Middle East is going to be a key issue for the election this year for a variety of reasons, but I think you will continue to see support for Israel decline in the West if we see more events like the strike last week. Unfortunately, like the situation in Ukraine, it doesn’t look like there is an end in sight for what is going on in Gaza. Elsewhere in the Middle East, there have been some recent rumors about the USS Eisenhower in the Red Sea and a potential Houthi attack. These are just rumors for now, but it will be interesting to see if the rumors have any substance.
Value Hive w/ GorillaGrip
This was a broad ranging discussion on commodities, geopolitics, and everything in between. GorillaGrip is an anonymous account on Twitter, but you can tell from the podcast that he knows what he’s talking about. They talk about finding an edge in the commodity space (which will be different for each investor), what they’re seeing with different commodities, and how the geopolitical landscape can impact investments. To be perfectly honest, I will probably go back and listen to this episode a second time when I get a chance.
Know Your Risk Radio w/ Chase Taylor
This was a wide ranging discussion about different commodities and how they factor into some of the changing trends driven by AI and new data centers. They also talk about how it is physically impossible to meet the increased demand for electricity with solar and wind, which is why I think you’re going to continue to see a shift towards natural gas and nuclear here in the US. They get into the nitty gritty details of what power demand could look like with new data centers and AI chips. Feel free to take it with a grain of salt, but I don’t think it takes a rocket scientist to see that our current grid won’t be able to handle the increased electricity demand, especially in certain areas of the country like Northern Virginia.
I’m probably a bit biased here, but I think the AI trade for value investors is to be long commodities producers. Whether it’s electricity demand looking like it is going to increase dramatically in coming years, or all of the materials that it’s going to take, there are a lot of ways to get a piece of the action. I think it’s only a matter of time before the market figures it out, but the commodities sector looks like an attractive pond to fish in for long term investors.
Gold Goats ‘n Guns w/ Yours Truly
I know I’m probably preaching to the choir a little bit at this point when comes to offshore oil services, but I went on Tom’s podcast to discuss some of the investment opportunities in the sector. We also discuss some of the other things to keep an eye on for oil, and what is going on with some of the companies in the sector. I’ll be having Tom on my podcast soon to talk about some of the things he’s watching in markets, but this was a fun discussion on some of the things I’m looking at for offshore.