Podcast & Videos Of The Week
The Geopolitical Circus In The Middle East, How It Might Impact The Tanker Market & A 30,000 Foot View On The Big Picture And Gold/Oil
I have been busy the last couple days, but I wanted to get a some thoughts down and share a couple podcasts for readers to listen to. The big news is that the US bombed several Iranian underground nuclear facilities over the weekend, and apparently there is now a ceasefire in place between Israel and Iran. We will see how long that lasts, but I have had a bunch of discussions and heard several different opinions on the US getting involved (again) in a conflict in the Middle East. I happen to think that we will look back on it as a mistake, but we won’t know for sure until much later.
At the same time, everyone and their mother has become a social media expert on the Strait of Hormuz overnight. I understand that it’s a natural reaction to the 24 hour news cycle, but it reminds me a bit of the hot takes on other news events in the last couple years. I have heard everything from 0% probability to 99% probability that the Strait of Hormuz will be shut down from listening to several podcasts, but I’m definitely closer to the 0% camp for now. I like to give all these things a couple days to circulate, but my knee jerk reaction is that the only way Iran would consider shutting the Strait of Hormuz is if Israel hits Kharg Island (which controls most of Iran’s oil exports) first. It’s also worth noting that roughly half of China’s oil imports come from Iran, but other Asian countries are heavily reliant on oil that passes through the Strait.
There is a ton of AI generated slop, false headlines, and opinions that will age poorly flying around right now, but we certainly live in interesting times. You have people talking about potential false flags, including running a play from the USS Liberty playbook with the 50 year old USS Nimitz that is expected to be decommissioned next year. All of this is stuff that makes you wonder after the strike this weekend which is eerily similar to the plot of the Top Gun: Maverick sequel. The conspiracy theories around what is going on is a rabbit hole for another time, but I’m not thrilled about the US getting involved in another foreign conflict. I don’t think you will see the Strait of Hormuz get closed for a variety of reasons, but the question rattling around my head is what happens if someone other than Iran wants to close the Strait?
Wars grow, and wars grow unpredictably.
- Michael Yon
RogueNews
Yesterday’s RogueNews podcast was one of my favorites on the current situation in the Middle East. There are a bunch of different factors that are overlooked by mainstream media and the social media crowd chasing the shiny object. One of the most interesting points they made is the changing spheres of influence of today’s three superpowers of the US, China, and Russia. The US going to dominate North and South America, China going to dominate Asia Pacific, and Russia going to dominate Eurasia. That leaves two vacuums: Europe and the Middle East. It’s not a coincidence that those regions are in turmoil right now.
They covered the slow motion train wreck that was Ted Cruz’s appearance on the Tucker Carlson Show, which was entertaining if only for the cringe factor. They also talked about the speed of AI developments, and what it means for the job market, Hollywood, and Universities. The protests in LA (rent-a-protest) were another topic, but most of the video is on the Middle East. They talked about both sides violating a ceasefire, the Samson option, and several other topics, but this video is definitely worth a watch if you have time. They come to the conclusion that Israel is the wildcard in the situation right now, and I tend to agree.
Oil Ground Up w/ Jeff McGee
With everything going on in the Middle East, this podcast was a timely overview of the tanker market. They talked about the Strait of Hormuz, along with the recent tanker collision in the area last week. They also talked about what rising freight rates for tankers mean for the oil market, and what might happen if sanctions come off the dark fleet. I know that shipping is an area of interest for some subscribers, and this one is definitely worth your time. It was a great overview of the tanker market, how tankers interact with broader oil markets, and how different potential events could have an impact on both markets.
Luke Gromen on Gold/Oil
If you’re short on time, this video was a short and sweet look at gold to oil and several other important topics to think about. Gromen thinks that we will see gold to oil continue to go higher for several reasons. If gold got big enough, it would compete with the Treasury market. Gold being remonetized is definitely a potential outcome, and it’s one where it makes more sense to compare gold to other currencies and bond markets than it does to compare it to commodities like oil in my opinion. Gold to oil has spent six months out of the last 50 years over 50 barrels an ounce, but that relationship might not mean much in the future if Gromen is right about the endgame.
He also talked about the divergence of the dollar and yields, and why yields have started to rise if the stock market sells off sharply. His big picture view is that they aren’t going to stand aside and let the bond market collapse, and that informs his view on inflation and interest rates. AI and robotics was another topic, and he laid out how it could lead to the bottom 80% of many fields lose their jobs while the top 20% stay employed. He’s still avoiding long-term Treasuries, at least until the dollar is fairly priced relative to gold. That’s going to take a lot higher gold prices, but as always, his podcasts are always thought provoking.
“Jobless people don’t vote for starvation, they vote for print the money.”