Podcast & Video Of The Week

A Detour Into Alternative Medicine & Confirmation Bias On A Commodities Bull Market

I have had a busy week and have been able to get a couple days on the mountain in at Tamarack, but I wanted to get this post out before the end of the long weekend. When it comes to watching videos or listening to podcasts, I don’t just stick to investments and finance related topics. Health, nutrition, culture, and psychology are all things I find interesting, and one of the podcasts I listened to related to medicine was the best one of the last week. The other video has a couple savvy investors on to discuss the setup for commodities, energy, and different things that could play out on that front over the next couple years.

Coffee And A Mike w/ Dr. Kathleen Ruddy

This was the most interesting podcast I listened to in the last week. I’ll lead off by saying that while health, fitness, intermittent fasting, and nutrition are all topics that I’m interested in, I’m not a doctor, and I don’t have any medical training. I do think that the medical system in its current form is broken and overdue for a significant change, but I think the next decade is going to be interesting to watch for new developments in health, nutrition, and fitness. I have seen more things coming out about Ivermectin and Fenbendazole potentially being effective against cancer, and I’m curious to see if it starts to hit the mainstream in the next couple years.

In this podcast, they discuss Dr. Ruddy’s observational study of cancer patients using drugs like Ivermectin instead of the conventional approach of chemo and/or radiation therapy. An observational study is a little different than a typical study and closer to anecdotal data, but Dr. Ruddy lays out a compelling case for ivermectin being worth a closer look as a potential cancer treatment. It will be interesting to see if it starts to impact some of the pharmaceutical companies, but it’s something worth watching. They also discuss fasting and different approaches to diet and nutrition, and how it could have an impact on disease and other health issues. Dr. Ruddy talks a bit about the 5 day fasting mimicking diet program that she has been experimenting with, and how the body reacts to a prolonged calorie deficit.

What types of cancer did the three patients (in the observational study) have?

The first one had stage 4 prostate, the second patient had un-resectable esophageal cancer, with two tumors in his esophagus…. He had known someone whose prostate cancer had been cured with ivermectin, so he started taking ivermectin, and his tumors went away completely. The third patient had an 18cm tumor in her pelvis that had originated in her stomach and dropped down into the ovary and the pelvis and started growing everywhere. She refused chemo and radiation and agreed to surgery, which was successful…. She was discharged from UVA (University of Virginia) and went to West Virginia, got a blood transfusion and began taking Ivermectin. She had three mets (metastatic lesions) in the liver, and then there were six, and she began taking Ivermectin, and the lesions went away.

- Dr. Kathleen Ruddy

Capital Cosm w/ Chris MacIntosh & Brad McFadden

Moving back to our regularly scheduled programming, we have a video focused on the big picture for energy over the next several years. They talk about the geopolitical mess that we currently find ourselves in, as well as supply and demand pictures for oil, natural gas, coal, and offshore energy. They think we are a couple years into a commodities bull market, and I agree. That doesn’t mean it will be a straight line up and to the right without volatility, but I think commodities will be the place to be for next three to five years, and potentially longer.

They talk about the sustained underinvestment in oil and gas (and coal) for years, and how that underinvestment lays the foundation for the typical 15 year commodities cycle. We have seen that underinvestment in the offshore sector, and they point out that we are years from new supply for deepwater rigs and jackups. No capacity from shipyards, which are all busy building various types of ships for the shipping sector. The shipyards will probably be reluctant to get back into building for offshore after the bust from a decade ago, and both of them think that the duration and magnitude of the offshore bull market might surprise people.

It’s hard to feel that way with sentiment around oil and offshore being down in the dumps currently, but I think that’s where the three to five year time horizon comes in. I think the same can be said for the coal sector. They talk about how the coal stocks are probably going to follow a path similar to tobacco stocks 20 years ago, which I wrote about in November. Like offshore, I think the coal bull market might sneak up on some investors. If you want some thoughts (or confirmation bias) on a commodities bull market from two sharp investors, you will enjoy this video.