I have been getting some questions and had a couple of conversations over the weekend on Sable Offshore’s SOC 0.00%↑ court hearing on Friday. I briefly touched on the other cases (the CCC and the Permit Transfer), but laid out the importance of the Consent Decree and CEQA in the EDC/CBD case. I also shared some thoughts on why Geck might be trying to thread the needle with the injunction AND the caveat that the OSFM can sign off and Sable can produce after 10 days.
My rough estimate for full operations is mid-August, give or take a couple weeks, but the other side is all but guaranteed to play whatever cards they have left. I wrapped up talking about why the next two weeks could give shorts time to exit, and quick thoughts on the options chain, and why some investors are still underestimating fair value. The short term will almost certainly continue to be volatile, but we have some clarity on what the next 4-6 weeks holds as far as jumping through regulatory and legal hoops for Sable.
