Yesterday I had Tim Duggan of The Oil Report on the podcast for the first time. We talked about what is going on the Middle East, and how the disruptions that are now baked into the cake will lead to higher oil prices for longer. We also covered the ripple effects that we will see in Asia and Europe, and the political issues in Ireland that could be exacerbated by supply chain disruptions. It was a great conversation not just on oil but also some of the big picture topics facing the West, and what could happen this summer as we start to see some of the consequences of closing the Strait of Hormuz. You can find Tim on Twitter and his Substack below.
Podcast Summary
The level of disruption in the oil market, and why that will lead to higher prices for longer.
The timeline for things to get back to normal as far as trade flows (roughly 100 days), and why too many things have been damaged to just go back to the previous status quo.
The ripple effects we will see in Asia and Europe from energy supply disruptions.
How the disruptions create opportunities in fertilizers and certain agricultural commodities.
The UAE leaving OPEC.
Flight cancellations and why we are probably going to see COVID level disruptions in the next three months.
How Ireland has been impacted, how the government has reacted, and the unrest that has come from various government policies.
Europe dealing with several self-inflicted problems, and the disconnect between what the average citizen wants and the policy of the bureaucrats.
How you can see one aspect of the great power competition between the US and China in the oil market, and his view on the future of the petrodollar.
Book Recommendations: Unsung Hero by Michael Smith and Gods of Money by William Engdahl.
