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Summary
I-80 Gold is a gold producer and developer focused on Nevada with a straightforward path to half a million ounces of annual production.
Shares have pulled back in recent weeks along with the other gold miners, and the stock is trading at roughly a quarter of NPV.
2026 is set to be heavy on news flow, but the real important piece for investors is the expected completion of the autoclave in late 2027. They currently rely on Nevada Gold Mines (Barrick/Newmont) for processing, which is a huge drag on costs and margins.
If they execute, by the end of 2027, I-80 will be producing more than 100,000 ounces annually with a functional autoclave. This will make the company a prime acquisition target, likely at multiples of today’s price.
The CEO recently bought 1M shares, and the management team has past experience and success in a tougher jurisdiction (Africa) during gold’s bear market of the 2010s.
Recent transactions, including a royalty bought by Franco Nevada, signal smart money confidence, and could lead to an accelerated development timeline for large assets in the pipeline.
If management executes, the story will become obvious to the market, and I think today’s valuation supports a triple or more by the end of 2027.
I hope everyone is enjoying the long weekend and Easter Sunday this morning, and is looking forward to this week. We have seen a nice bounce in the precious metals complex over the last couple weeks, and I think the worst of the liquidity grab triggered by events in the Middle East is behind us for now. That doesn’t mean it’s straight up and to the right from here, but I doubt we will see another waterfall like we got from the beginning to the middle of March anytime soon. I have been sitting on my hands for the most part since things kicked off in Iran, but I did use the recent selloff in the miners to add a new position to my basket.
The newest purchase is I-80 Gold IAUX 0.00%↑. My uncle has been poking me to take a look at this one for a while, and I finally pulled the trigger last week after I saw that the CEO made a chunky insider buy a couple weeks ago. It’s based in Nevada, so you don’t have to worry about jurisdiction, and the valuation is very cheap unless you think gold is on its way back to $2,000 per ounce. They have one producing asset that is ramping up, another that is coming online this year, an autoclave facility that is actually the most important piece of their CAPEX budget, and several other projects in the pipeline.
The fact that I-80 has a similar fully diluted market cap to Snowline Gold (both are roughly $2B) doesn’t make much sense to me simply based on what is coming over the next couple years for I-80. If you can hang onto shares for a couple years, I think the market will start to figure out the story over the next year, and it will become blindingly obvious by the time the autoclave is up and running. That rerate can happen even if gold isn’t cooperating, but if gold does provide a tailwind and management executes, I think there is a path to $5 per share or more by the end of 2027.
