Election Ramblings & The Video Of The Week
Taking A Victory Lap, The Winners And Losers From The Election & A Video On The Potential Impact Of A Trump Presidency
Like I talked about on my most recent podcast, the next couple months are shaping up to be very interesting. I’m biased, but I definitely had a sigh of relief after the results on Tuesday. I think a lot of people looked at the immigration, foreign policy, inflation in recent years, and other things that have been heading in the wrong direction over the last four years, and decided that it was time for a change. Trump’s not the perfect candidate, but I’m glad that most of the US didn’t want a continuation of the last four years. I think a change in the status quo (even from Trump’s first term) could happen quickly with the supporting cast Trump has around him this time.
Trump’s Supporting Cast
We will have to see what happens over the next couple months before Trump’s inauguration, but I think his second term is going to look very different from his first. The biggest reason is the supporting cast he has around him. I don’t think we are going to get the Mike Pompeo or Jim Mattis types around him. What his Cabinet will look like is hard to say at this stage, but I’m optimistic that it will be a lot better than round 1. For example, if he can point RFK at a health/food type role where the US can make real changes to the medical and vaccine system and the food quality, that would be a huge benefit to the US. It might have to be a special position, because getting Kennedy confirmed by the Senate for a Cabinet position like Health and Human Services might be difficult given the big Pharma money flowing around Congress.
There have been rumors that Thomas Massie might be Secretary of Agriculture, with regenerative farmer Joel Salatin potentially being an advisor. That would be an interesting combo, but my point is that dramatic changes to the US food system (and all of the garbage that is in it today) will have a variety of positive downstream effects. If you get that, Elon Musk (or someone else) cutting large swaths of the government with a Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and other people like Vivek Ramaswamy and Tulsi Gabbard into positions of influence, the next couple years could get very interesting. I think there is a decent chance Trump & Co. hit the ground running because they have been self funding the transition team so far, and there has been talk of several executive orders that are on the agenda. We will see what happens in the first 100 days, but I’m cautiously optimistic for now.
Market Impacts?
So now that we don’t have to wonder about an unrealized capital gains tax, we can talk about a couple of things that have been interesting in the markets lately. Long gold has been a consensus trade for months, and all I’m seeing on some of my favorite YouTube channels is talk on gold and gold miners, but I’m curious to see how the next 3 to 6 months play out for gold. Is gold selling off because Trump is more likely to resolve things in Ukraine and the Middle East? It sounds weird, but is there more faith in the institutions with Trump in office, and that turns into a headwind for gold? Will a Trump administration actually be able to meaningfully cut government spending? I’m doubtful on the last one, but those are all questions worth asking at this point.
I’m still a longer-term bull on gold, but the other questions I have are on oil. A couple people have mentioned the potential for sanctions on Iranian oil once Trump is back in office, but we will have to see if that is a factor moving forward. I have talked about why I don’t think “drill, baby, drill” is some magic fix for supply, and I don’t think Trump has some magic wand that changes the geology in the Permian. The last thing I think will be interesting to see is how potential tariffs impact the economy. If they are done well and accompanied by deregulation (and a repeal of the income tax, fingers crossed), it could have some interesting effects depending on the actual policy. Also, I would love to hear if anyone can make a long term bull case for 10-30 year bonds (not a short term trade), because I just don’t see it. I do have to take a victory lap on the election real quick, because it looks like the electoral map I put in my post a couple weeks ago is going to be spot on.
I’m assuming Arizona gets called for Trump (84% reporting with a 180,000 vote lead as I write this), but that’s the last state we’re waiting on. It will be interesting to see how the House and Senate shake out, but it looks like we will have a so-called red sweep as things stand today. I’m curious to see if we get any shenanigans in the next couple months for the races that are tight, but it will be worth watching. Trump also won the popular vote, so he has his mandate. Let’s see what he does with it.
Sea Changes In The American Media
It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out, but I think the election shows a clear shift in several important areas. Independent media, whether it’s Twitter, podcasts, or any of the other smaller news sources, looks like a huge winner. More and more people are getting information from sources outside of the regime media, and that audience skews younger, which will be important moving forward. On the other side of the same coin, the regime media looks like they have lost credibility and lost the trust of large chunks of America.
Let me give an analogy. Voting machines must meet two requirements. They must count the vote accurately, and people must believe they count the vote accurately. The second requirement is distinct from and just as important as the first.
Likewise with newspapers. We must be accurate, and we must be believed to be accurate. It’s a bitter pill to swallow, but we are failing on the second requirement. Most people believe the media is biased. Anyone who doesn’t see this is paying scant attention to reality, and those who fight reality lose. Reality is an undefeated champion.
I would say that they have failed on the first requirement Bezos mentioned as well, but this loss of trust was self-inflicted. To say their coverage of a variety of events over the last four years (and longer, to be honest) has been one sided is an understatement. We will see if they can shift and try to regain some of the public’s trust, but I’m not sure if that’s possible at this point. Bezos is trying to force that at the Washington Post, but from some of the stuff I have seen on other outlets, it looks like they might be beyond saving. Add in the fact that the average age of the mainstream media viewer is in the late 60s, early 70s ballpark depending on the network, and it’s a steep hill to climb for many of the mainstream news sources that have been around for decades.
Other Winners & Losers
There are other winners worth mentioning. All the people that are tired of political correctness, DEI, ESG, and all of the other ridiculous (and insidious) policies are probably also breathing a sigh of relief after last week’s election. The importance of free speech has been talked about at length by a bunch of people so I won’t rehash it here, but I think things are trending in the right direction on that front. Elon Musk buying Twitter has had an impact on that since he bought it a couple years ago, and platforms like Substack are important as well. Other potential losers will depend on what Trump’s policies and his Cabinet picks and what they are able to accomplish.
If they can slash government jobs and waste, government employees in adult daycare jobs could be in a rough spot. The same can be said for the NGO / Immigration complex that is responsible for the immigration spike we saw over the last several years. The other areas to watch are parts of the healthcare, food, and pharmaceutical industries that could be targets of the new administration. All three industries deserve to be put under a microscope for some of the practices that have become widely accepted here in the US over the last several decades, but I’m a bit more skeptical that we will see meaningful changes in those three sectors.
MacroVoices w/ Pippa Malmgren
If you made it this far and want a video on the potential impact of a Trump presidency, this was one of the most interesting ones that I saw in the last week. They talked about the impact of influential Silicon Valley figures like Elon Musk, and how RFK was more important than the media was willing to admit. She also talked about how RFK might have a role to play in the release of JFK assassination documents, and on some of the food/health areas I talked about above. Geopolitics was an area of focus, with their thoughts on Trump potentially being able to deescalate things in Ukraine and the Middle East. She also talked about several potential Cabinet picks and the importance of self-funding the transition team, and how that might impact the speed of implementing the agenda and the first 100 days. If you have the time, this video will definitely give readers something to think about.
Ben gold was looking very stretched and most of the TA guys were predicting a pullback with 2800 the top.
A pullback and making a new floor would be good for lift off to newer highs but many think charts are crap!
1. No what leads to protest is future George Floyd's, and mass deportation. Particularly if he deports 25 year Olds born here whose parents are illegals. Soon we will have blue state governers confronting federal troops with the national guard. Trump will also give orders to shoot protesters, Kent state on steroids.
2. Okay not oil, what about potash, copper, platinum, uranium or cobalt?
3. Trump will interfere with Fed keeping interest rates too low. The bond market will revolt.
4. Trump loves debt. There is nothing to cut. Reagan claimed waste fraud abuse, found nothing . Now if he wants to cut , it's Medicare , Social Security.
5 . Trump wants to drill, baby drill. Okay open up Alaska offshore plus California offshore plus Gulf of Mexico. Where do you get all the drilling rigs?
6. You made a comment about lowering cost of housing through deportation. Problem is illegals build housing so supply costs go up.
7. Georgia had mass deportation . Crops spoiled because there was no one to pick crops.
8. 2 years from now , the policies will lead to disaster. I told you so, will be cold comfort to many. The Democrats have the advantage in Senate seats in 2026. Combine that with 2018 like losses in the House, and the investigations will begin.
9. That's when things hit the fan and the civil war threat will become apparent . The good news is natural resources should be good investments.