Bipolar Markets & A Couple Quick Notes On Sable

A Couple Thoughts On Recent Market Moves & Trump's Executive Order And A Recent Analyst Note On Sable

It’s been an interesting week in financial markets, which you will know is an understatement if you spend any time following Fintwit. I’m sure some of you have seen some of the hyperbolic takes, but there was a lot of doom and gloom going around. This is not me saying we are out of the woods or giving the all clear. I still think markets are going to be volatile, but markets seemed to think yesterday was the green light.

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A couple hours later, he made the announcement that tariffs would be paused for 90 days hit and markets screamed higher. I’ll be talking more about that today on a couple podcasts, so keep an eye out for those over the next couple days, but markets have been bipolar since Trump announced tariffs last week on April 2. I guess I should have waited a couple weeks to write the “What The Hell Is Going On?” piece, but hindsight is 20/20. I’m not really sure how to handicap the 125% tariffs on China, but setting tariffs to 10% while they negotiate with most countries for the 90 day window should be interesting to watch.

It certainly should calm down the predictions of financial armageddon (at least temporarily), but I’m curious to see where broader markets go from here. Seeing Chinese stocks flying yesterday is a curious move to me, but when Bessent says that delisting Chinese stocks is on the table, and China is the obvious target of the tariff circus, it’s something to think about. My extremely tiny positions in Sberbank and Lukoil shares are still mocking me from the side pocket in my Schwab account, but there is a little bit of “Fear Of Getting Gazprom-ed”, as Le Shrub calls it. That’s unlikely with Chinese stocks in my opinion, but I do think the odds have gone up in the last two weeks.

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It’s hard to imagine what that does to Trump’s already healthy ego, but we aren’t even three months into his administration, and he is definitely making tape bombs great again. I’m curious to see if the broad rally has legs, but I’m nervous to see where things go from here. There are a bunch of things that make me wonder if yesterday’s move is a head fake, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the next couple months are volatile, regardless of direction.

Sable Offshore: Stomach Churning Volatility

Last week after Trump’s announcement, the market decided it was time to sell everything for four days, and Sable Offshore SOC 0.00%↑ got taken out to the woodshed to the tune of roughly 40%, before getting a nice bounce yesterday. Oil prices (which are still down roughly $10 bucks a barrel even after yesterday’s bounce) didn’t do any favors, but it will be interesting to see where shares go from here. I will include a picture that I swiped for a post that I wrote last fall on Sable, but I think it definitely applies to the last week of trading.

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You Are Here

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I could rant and rave about how far we are from fair value, but a friend summed up the progress on how far things have come, and how the selloff in the last week didn’t reflect that at all.

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An Interesting Executive Order From Trump