I have been busy this last week on the road visiting family, but it has also given me time to think about all of the stuff going on. Since the US and Israel started things with Iran a couple weeks ago, I have been taking a step back from “monitoring the situation.” Part of me is tempted to be glued to Twitter to keep track of what is going on, but I think checking in every couple days is a better way to go about it. It allows some time for events to breathe and see which headlines are real and which are fake. Recent events have me pretty worried about what is coming for supply chains for the rest of 2026.
If you have a chance to make any large food purchases (half of a cow, a full pig, etc), I would recommend doing it now. Even if it is smaller purchases, I would recommend stocking up the freezer sooner rather than later. This is financial advice, because a resolution with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz isn’t going to make food any cheaper than it is right now, but if things drag on for months, the fertilizer and chemical supply chains are going to lead to higher prices. For better or worse, our food supply chains have been industrialized, and unless things are resolved quickly, prices could get ugly over the next several months.
Value Hive w/ Calvin Froedge
For anyone interested in the various supply chains that will feel the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, last week’s Value Hive podcast with Calvin Froedge is a must listen. They talked about oil, which is the obvious one, but they also get into chemicals, fertilizers, and how that feeds into other parts of the supply chain. They also cover some of the geopolitical changes have impacted the political environment, and the tribalism that has started to become more apparent in recent years. This one was recorded on Monday, so a lot has happened since then, but if you need some food for thought on the second and third order effects on what is going on, you will like this one.
Macro Voices w/ Jim Bianco & Anas Alhajji
This one is a long one, but it’s definitely worth your time. The conversation with Jim Bianco goes into the different macro pieces, from interest rates to energy and inflation. They also talk precious metals, changes in AI, crypto and stablecoins, and the political environment as we head into the midterms. I’m sure that investors might be more interested in what Dr. Anas Alhajji has to say about recent events, and if you’re trying to get a handle on the impact on recent events on the energy markets, you might want to skip to the middle where their conversation starts if you’re limited on time. They get into transportation, logistics, sanctions, and how all of the recent events could play out. Both conversations will give investors something to think about, and it was one of the best podcasts of the last week.
The Shitshow Continues: No End In Sight
On Friday, March 13, 2020, Trump declared a national emergency for COVID. Six years later, also on Friday the 13th, Trump hit Kharg Island, which is something I talked about last week. There is also talk about boots on the ground, but those are just rumors for now. With the pace of recent events, we could see that happen this week for all I know. Everyone remembers the impact on supply chains the economic shutdown had in 2020. I think recent events have the chance to be much messier as far as markets, supply chains, and the shakeup of the geopolitical chessboard that comes with it.
