2024: The Beginning Of The End Or The End Of The Beginning? (Part 2)
2024: The Beginning Of The End Or The End Of The Beginning? (Part 2)
A Look At The Presidential Candidates & Why I Think 2024 Is Going To Set The Table For The Rest Of The Decade
On Wednesday, I wrote a post on what I think will be the most important issues of the 2024 Presidential Election. I talked about illegal immigration, American involvement in foreign wars, and economic issues like the wealth gap and housing affordability. I think these will be some of the dominant issues discussed in next year’s news cycle. If you haven’t read it yet, it covers some of these topics in more detail.
Today, I will be doing a breakdown of the Presidential candidates, and how the result of the election could have an impact on the rest of the decade. Before I do that, I have to start with a rant on the state of the political world.
How do you know if a politician is lying?
Their mouth is moving.
This may be a cynical view on our politicians, but I just assume they’re lying until proven otherwise. Part of this is due to the time I grew up in, but part of it is just paying attention to what has happened to our country over the last two decades. If you want to understand politicians, ignore what they say and watch what they do. Their actions speak louder than words, and the actions of most politicians in Washington, D.C. show that they do not have the best interests of America as their primary motivation.
Take immigration for example. Many politicians use immigration as a campaign issue, but that hasn’t led to a change in policy. Over the last two decades, no matter who gets elected, immigration has continued to be a problem, despite what politicians may say on the campaign trail. Another thing that hasn’t changed is America’s foreign policy. I still haven’t heard a satisfactory explanation of what we were doing in Iraq or Afghanistan, and I think most Americans today are not interested in supporting boondoggles like Ukraine or Israel. That hasn’t stopped our government from stirring things up in the Middle East and more recently with Ukraine. For our politicians, war is a question, and the answer is almost always yes.
Their approach to the economy is more government spending. It’s an oversimplification, but neither party is interested in cutting spending, despite our country’s dire budget situation. Jason Burack of Wall Street For Main Street likes to call it “stagflate, tax, lie.” Outside of the main talking points, I don’t think there isn’t much of a difference between Republicans and Democrats. Some call it the Uniparty, or the Blob, or the Deep State. While the people that run for election talk a good game to get their base riled up, many important people in our government are not elected, and we will never know their names.
Right Vs. Left
Just so you know, I’m not a Republican or a Democrat, and I don’t fit neatly into the two party box that sets the American people up for the classic divide and conquer tactic. The problem with liberal politicians is that most of them hate America and everything it stands for, and many of the things they support are absolutely insane. I don’t have the time to go into it here, but I’m sure many of you are familiar with some of the things that have only become more prevalent over the last couple years. The problem with conservative politicians is that the only thing they conserve is the liberal agenda from 10 or 15 years ago. Now, on to the candidates.
The Candidates
There is Trump, and there is everyone else. There is a reason that Trump gets the most heat from the media, while the controlled opposition candidates fly under the radar. It’s not a popular opinion, but I’m going to spend most of my time in this post on Trump for three reasons: I think he is going to win, he’s the most interesting candidate, and I think the rest of the candidates are essentially all the same.
Trump: The Revenge Tour?
Trump is certainly not the most polished Presidential candidate we have had. He’s arrogant, shallow, and easily distracted. He’s also responsible for the rushed COVID vaccine rollout, which is going to prove to be a disaster when we look back on it in a decade. For all of his flaws, I think that he is the most likely candidate to win the election in 2024. People hate him, and many will struggle to give you a legitimate reason. Is it because of Russian collusion? Immigrant kids in cages? The January 6th “insurrection”?
Logic doesn’t work on people who just hate Trump because he’s not on their team. I’m not on either team, but for those that still play that game, he’s the best option in 2024. Trump’s responsible for waking a lot of people up to just how corrupt the large media outfits are, along with the corruption of large swaths of the Federal Government. More recently, you have the lawsuits against him and news that he is going to be taken off the ballot in Colorado for 2024. We will see if any of these slow him down, but I think it only makes him a stronger candidate, and attacks like this will probably add new supporters to his base. We will see how next year plays out, but I have a couple predictions for Trump and his campaign next year.
The first prediction is that Trump will return to Twitter. I would be surprised if he isn’t back by the time the campaign is in full swing, given how effective he was on Twitter in the past. Social media, especially for a political campaign, is not purely about sharing information or content. It’s about eyeballs, emotions, and charisma. The information or the content of a social media post takes a backseat. He will definitely get more eyeballs on Twitter than he will on Truth Social. He certainly creates strong emotions in people, good or bad. Not many people who are still in the middle on Trump. He absolutely has charisma, and people can’t help themselves when it comes to paying attention to what Trump did, or what Trump said, etc.
I try to avoid the news like the plague, but some of it always leaks through. I have seen multiple posts saying that Trump will be an authoritarian, or he will become a dictator. It sounds messy on paper, but I’m more results oriented than process oriented. Is Trump going to get us out of Ukraine, stop supporting Israel, and close the border? Sounds good to me. Don’t know if that automatically makes him authoritarian, but my opinion is that our government in its current form can’t get much worse.
My second prediction is that Trump will win the presidency, assuming we have a legitimate election. I’m not here to debate the 2020 election and voter fraud, because that’s in the past and it’s a deep rabbit hole, but if you think Biden actually got 81 million votes in 2020, I have a bridge to sell you. The path from here to there is murky, but there is a reason the Trump is the gambling odds favorite in next year’s election. The last point is a possibility, not a prediction. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an assassination attempt on Trump next year. I would hate to see it because I think the chaos created will be massive and unpredictable to say the least.
The last couple years have proven that there are groups that will stop at nothing to bring down Trump. If all of the legal shenanigans fail, I don’t know what the next step would be. Again, I’m hoping it doesn’t happen, but I think it is a possibility heading into 2024. People will still vote for Trump, and some of you might wonder why. The way I look at it is this: the people that hate me (and people like me), hate Trump. Voting for Trump is like pulling the pin on a grenade, throwing it at Washington, D.C., and hoping it goes off.
The Field
I said earlier that I think all the other candidates are essentially the same. It’s an oversimplification, but my point is that I think electing any of the other candidates is probably going to end up with a very similar result. I’ll start with the Democratic candidates before moving on to the remaining Republican candidates.
Democrats: Weak Candidates Across The Board
If the Democrats were a sports team, they have a weak lineup and no depth on the bench. I would be shocked if Biden is at the head of the Democratic ticket in 2024, but we will have to wait and see. What I will say is that there is a reason we see new headlines in the mainstream media on Joe Biden’s corruption or Hunter Biden’s extracurricular activities every couple weeks. I think Gavin Newsom is the most likely candidate to win the Democrat nomination in 2024, but he has some issues that will cause problems for him on the campaign trail.
Gavin Newsom
The first is the state of California. Things have been going in the wrong direction for California on many fronts, and it would take too long to outline all of them here. One recent example that stands is what happened in preparation for the APEC summit. Xi Jinping, the President of China, was in town in November, and they decided to clean up San Francisco. The fact that they haven’t bothered to clean up San Francisco until the recent economic conference shows that they could deal with the problems, they just choose not to. Newsom has a couple things going for him. He’s a tall, telegenic white guy, which has been a formula for success in the past. He has the charisma, and unlike Biden, he can consistently string together a full sentence, but he seems like the political equivalent of a used car salesman. At the end of the day, Make America California is not a winning campaign platform.
Joe Biden
I doubt we will see Biden run in 2024, but as the current President, he is worth mentioning. Even if you think that the election was fair and square, I think that people considering voting for Biden next year should revisit the contents of the Hunter Biden laptop (which was not a hoax, despite what people said before the 2020 election), and ties between the Biden family and foreign business dealings. On top of 10% for the big guy, we have the issue of his cognitive decline and old age. In the unlikely event that Biden wins another term, we are in for another 4 years (if he lasts that long) of an unknown group of people running the country while Biden makes the occasional PR appearance.
The Wildcards
Like Biden, I think Kamala Harris is unelectable. We will see how 2024 plays out, but she has an interesting role as the current VP. She’s the fly in the ointment for the Democrat party. It will difficult for the Democrats to push her out in 2024, but I don’t see a path for her to be the Democrat nominee in 2024. The other two wildcards are Michelle Obama and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. From what I have heard, Michelle Obama is not interested in campaigning in 2024, but we will have to wait and see. RFK Jr. has been a vocal critic on COVID, vaccines, and several other issues, but I don’t see how he has a real path to victory. He has switched to running as an independent, and some have compared the potential outcome in 2024 to Ross Perot’s campaign in 1992, drawing votes from both sides.
Republicans: Running For Second Place
Like the Democratic candidates for President, I think the Republican candidates are weak across the board. I don’t think any of the Republican candidates outside of Trump are going to be able to get the conservative base to the polls. We will see how this develops in 2024, but I think the most likely outcome is that we see the candidates vying for VP and potentially cabinet positions. I think the only Republican Presidential candidates except Trump worth mentioning are Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Ron DeSantis.
Nikki Haley
Nikki Haley (aka Nimarata Nikki Randhawa) looks like she is going to be the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination. If she does win the nomination and the Presidency, I think that we are in for 4 years of the same policies that we have seen over the last couple decades from the so-called conservatives in the Federal Government. She has been gaining in polls in recent weeks, and she has been getting more support from big donors.
Add Wall Street and other deep pocketed donors, and I think Nikki Haley as President will probably be an empty suit that will do whatever her handlers and donors want. It’s an oversimplification, but I have heard people compare her to Dick Cheney in heels. I would be disappointed if she wins the nomination, and I think many conservative voters would feel the same way.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Vivek says a lot of the things you would want to hear, but I don’t trust him. He is better on rhetoric than Trump, with a quick wit and a sharp tongue, but I have my doubts on him due to his past in the pharmaceutical industry. I remember seeing a post that pointed out Vivek’s lack of criticism for Trump, and I think he is positioning himself as a potential VP pick or for a cabinet seat. He has been critical of US involvement in Ukraine and Israel, and I think his anti-war stance is refreshing for conservative voters. I think he is the best Republican Presidential option outside of Trump, and I think he would probably be a good pick for Vice President. I would love to see General Doug MacGregor as Trump’s VP, but I have also seen people floating Tucker Carlson as a potential VP. It’s hard to put odds on who would be Trump’s VP, but I think Vivek is one of the mostly likely picks.
Ron DeSantis
Ron DeSantis came in as the favored challenger to Trump, but he has been fading fast in the polls in recent months. His policy record as Governor of Florida gave him an advantage, especially on COVID, but his lack of charisma has been a problem for him. Call it the “it-factor” or charisma, or whatever you want, but DeSantis doesn’t have it. I thought he had a real chance to give Trump a run for his money in 2024, but I think he can do more good by being Governor of Florida in my opinion. I don’t think he will be a potential VP or cabinet pick, but we will have to see how 2024 plays out to know that for sure. I think he jumped the gun by running in 2024 and should have waited until the 2028 election to run for President.
Where Do We Go From Here?
I think 2024 is the year that will set the table for the rest of decade, and that starts with the Presidential Election. If one of the Democratic candidates wins next year, it probably looks like more of the same. More immigration, continued involvement in foreign wars, and more government spending (this last part depends on what happens with the House and Senate in 2024). If one of the Republican candidates win, it probably won’t look much different. What the Republicans say they will do, what they should do, and what they actually do when they get elected have been very different over the last couple decades.
They should go after the parts of the government that are corrupt after the election. This includes government agencies, parts of the judicial system, and the military and Defense Department. I don’t think they will do anything dramatic to rock the boat, so I’m not optimistic on changes for the better on that front. If Trump wins, I do think we get some version of a revenge tour. How effective that will be is up for debate. I don’t think that we will see a complete “drain the swamp”, but I do think Trump will be aware of the den of vipers he is going into, instead of flying by the seat of his pants like last time. I’m not saying that Trump is going to do this out of some sense of right and wrong. I think he will do it because they wronged him. Will we get to see him go scorched earth if he gets elected? I don’t know, but grab your popcorn because 2024 is set to be the most interesting election in my lifetime.
Geopolitics
The election is going to be an important event, but what else could happen in 2024? A repeat of COVID lockdowns? Proxy wars expanding into direct conflict? I have seen multiple people float the idea of World War III, or an American Civil War. This isn’t a scientific observation, but it seems like the frequency has been increasing in recent months. I’m not here to say the sky is falling and the end is near, but there are a couple possibilities that are worth mentioning.
Another Scamdemic?
I doubt we see something similar to what happened in 2020 with lockdowns and vaccines, but I can’t rule it out. If someone tried to tell you in 2019 that a coronavirus was coming with a 99% survival rate (or higher depending on who you ask), and we were going to put everything on hold, and then rush an experimental vaccine out, you would look at that guy like he was crazy. It reads like a terrible movie script. As a side note, you should look up Event 201 if you think I’m blowing smoke.
I don’t think we will see another round of COVID or something similar. I think enough people will react and push back faster because we have seen this movie before. To be fair, most people don’t pay attention to what is going on in the world, and COVID has already been put in the rear view mirror as far as the news cycle goes, so I could be too optimistic on how the average Joe might react to COVID 2.0. I have started to see headlines from World Economic Forum and United Nations types about “the next pandemic”, so we can’t rule it out.
American Civil War?
Could we see Americans fighting Americans in 2024? My gut instinct on this one is not yet. America is as divided as it has ever been, which is by design, but I don’t think we are past the point of no return yet. Now that could change next year with the Presidential Election, and the potential circumstances surrounding the election, but I think that states seceding and a Civil War is an unlikely outcome. Depending on how 2024 goes, this outcome could get more or less likely. Believe it or not, I think that a Trump Presidency actually lowers the likelihood of a Civil War (if I’m wrong on this, I will be the first to admit it).
We might get another round of Soros-fueled “mostly peaceful protests” that flame out within a week, but I don’t think we would see states seceding if Trump wins. If we get rerun of 2020 with voter fraud, government agency misconduct, and a Justice Department making up reasons to go after political enemies, I think the likelihood of a civil war increases. If it becomes obvious to parts of the country that their votes no longer matter, then they will stop voting. At the end of the day, we either vote with ballots or we vote with bullets.
World War III?
I think World War III is unlikely, but I do think it has a higher chance of occurring than another pandemic and lockdown, or an American Civil War. The proxy wars we have seen in different parts of the world might end up in direct US/NATO involvement. There are plenty of interest groups that have interests in getting the US involved overseas for a variety of reasons. It seems like Americans are finally figuring out that we shouldn’t be getting involved in conflicts halfway around the world. That doesn’t mean our government has figured it out, and depending on who gets elected, I think the odds of a broader conflict could change dramatically.
I’m sure if President Trump were president today, there’d be no war inflicting Europe and Ukraine.
~ Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s Prime Minister, in support of Trump’s Presidential Campaign
I think that if Trump or Vivek get elected, that reduces the probability of conflicts spiraling out of control. As long as they aren’t blowing smoke on their anti-war stance, this would be the best outcome. If Nikki Haley gets elected, I think the chance that something spirals out of control actually goes up. With the rest of the Presidential candidates, I don’t there is any material probability change on a broad conflict. This is just based off my impression of the candidates, and all of this could change on a dime depending on what is going on in the world. I’m not just trying to hedge my bets, but I am saying that a lot can happen between now and the November election, and it’s impossible to foresee all of it.
Conclusion
As far as the other impactful events of 2024 go, what I will say is that we will know it when we see it. The things I talked about above are just three possibilities, not the only possibilities for what could happen. Civilizations go in cycles, and if the Fourth Turning proves to be accurate on which part of the generational cycle we are in, things are going to get messy between now and 2030. I think the Presidential Election is going to be a very important event next year, and 2024 will set the table for the rest of the decade. I think we will see a chaotic election news cycle next year, but I think Donald Trump will win next year’s Presidential Election. We will have to wait and see if we get a Trump revenge tour that starts in 2025, but it will be interesting to watch.
I haven’t decided who I will vote for in 2024, or if I will vote, but the only candidate I would consider voting for today is Trump. I think the best reason to consider voting for Trump is that the likelihood that America gets involved a massive conflict, foreign or domestic, goes down in my opinion. If he can pull us back from the brink and stop the flood of illegal immigrants, he will have ticked two of the most important boxes for many Americans. Whatever happens, I think we are watching the death of both political parties as we know them. As the younger generations rise in influence, we are going to see massive changes in both parties.
I’m not optimistic about the near term future for America for a variety of reasons, but I think that America will come out the other side as a much stronger country than it is today. We have a lot of geopolitical problems right now, and I think the Presidential Election will determine the path we are on for several years. I don’t think 2024 will be the beginning of the end. I think it’s the end of the beginning, and the events of 2024 will set the table for the rest of the decade.