I have heard some people say that this 8D chess, and that Trump doesn’t want the Strait open yet, but I have a hard time seeing how the last month in the Middle East is going to plan. There is news that several refueling and radar planes were damaged or destroyed at the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, the THAAD system they moved from South Korea to Jordan was destroyed, and there are more rumors about the plans for Kharg Island and what the US has in store on that front. We have started targeting Iranian electricity infrastructure, and now Iran has hit Kuwait’s largest desalination plant, which accounts for almost 40% of their desalination capacity.

Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable, with the ones in Kuwait, which is next door to Iran, suffering perhaps the most damage. Six U.S. service members were killed in a strike on Port Shuaiba that destroyed an Army tactical operations center. Iranian drones and missiles also targeted Ali Al Salem Air Base, damaging aircraft structures and injuring personnel, and Camp Buehring, damaging maintenance and fuel facilities.

- Iran’s Attacks Force U.S. Troops to Work Remotely, New York Times

The Bahrain Refinery, with a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day, is now gone. Multiple aluminum operations in the Middle East have been targeted, and Airgas, one of the largest distributors of gases in the US, has declared force majeure for helium deliveries. People have pointed out that helium is crucial for semiconductor supply chains, but it’s also important for different medical and space applications. The silver lining is that Iran hit the pharmaceutical plant in Israel that makes puberty blockers, so there is that. I’m sure I’m missing several important events of the last week, but the point is that things are moving very quickly now, and the events of the last month are going to be felt for months, if not years.

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As Micheal Yon likes to say, war expands, and war expands unpredictably. He is also predicting a large famine, as several large Russian fertilizer operations have been hit recently with the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. With everything going on now in the Middle East, it’s hard to overstate how ugly supply chains could be before the end of the year. I know I’m starting to sound like a broken record on this topic, but I think it’s prudent to at least stockpile food and water, because things aren’t going to get cheaper in coming months.

Jay Martin Show w/ Luke Gromen & Grant Williams

This was my favorite podcast of the week on financial markets, and they explain why the current situation is simultaneously the easiest and hardest time for macro. As long as Hormuz is closed, nothing else matters. That’s the elephant in the room, but they also cover the media environment, the fog of war, and the propaganda usage on both sides. For all of the stuff that has happened in recent weeks, the US is actually the least impacted by Hormuz closure of any of the major players. I’m not sure when exactly it was recorded, but it looks like a lot of the stuff they talked about has happened this weekend.

Apparently there are rumors from people on the ground that things are worse than we are hearing, which ties into the fog of war topic and is something I discussed last week with Veles. They covered how Russia benefits and where China stands, what the unsanctioning of Russian and Iranian oil means, and how it shows the lack of preparation from US leaders. The changes in the financial and economic systems was where they wrapped up, and they covered why all roads lead to gold, and how most of the market is very complacent about the potential chain reaction that could be coming.

The Tucker Carlson Show w/ Ben Gibney

This one isn’t focused on financial markets, but I think it’s timely with everything going on lately. They talk about the police interrogation footage of Netanyahu, and what is on more than 1,000 hours of tapes. It covered the connections to influential people in the US, and how Netanyahu arranged for the money flowing from Qatar to Hamas. The lead up to October 7th and what happened after. I haven’t seen The Bibi Files yet, but it’s on the list. Conspiracy theorists that have been talking about this for a couple years get another tally in the W column, but for anyone interested in a rabbit hole, this recent Tucker podcast would be a good place to start.

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RogueNews w/ Veles

I talked with Veles earlier this week, but his podcast from Friday is definitely worth a watch. He covered a ton of different topics, but the overarching theme is that we are seeing factions of the elite competing for power as the new financial and economic system is being built. There are several military conflicts (not just Iran), and he briefly talked about each one, from Ukraine to Pakistan/Afghanistan. You also see the Strait of Hormuz, and how the maritime insurance industry is going to be impacted. Veles also predicted that we could see a regime change in Cuba by the end of the year.

He also got into several aspects of the child trafficking issue, from the Franklin Scandal and the Finders, to Epstein and the medical research they were doing in Ukraine and the Zorro Ranch in New Mexico. On the financial side, he went into private equity and their ties to medical/hospice services, along with Blackrock and others acquiring utilities, like their recent deal for AES for more than $10B. One other topic to keep an eye on is stablecoins, blockchain, and the process of tying physical assets to crypto. On the topic of AI, he talked about how it will quickly become a commodity service, the societal and economic impact, and how we are currently seeing employment issues and a lack of entry level jobs. They covered a bunch of other topics as well, but if you want a video to cover topics that get memory holed, this is the one for you.

The Steve Eisman Show w/ Tom Gober

This one is a little more dry, but it’s a very interesting look at the connections between the private equity industry and the insurance industry. Many private equity companies have built captive insurance companies, and depending on the company practices, that can significantly increase leverage in the system. He gets into the asset-liability mismatch, and some of the illiquid investments on the asset side of the balance sheet. The scrutiny on the insurance industry has faded over the last two decades, and much of it has been offshored to Bermuda, Barbados, and the Cayman Islands. He also went into some of the smaller credit rating agencies, and some of the accounting practices that have been going on since private equity companies got involved. I still think private equity and private credit are asset classes to be avoided, and this video is a good look at a couple reasons why.

The Shit Hits The Fan In Iran

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Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge

All Hell Set to Break Loose? IRGC Promises Historic Devastation After Khamenei Confirmed Killed by Israeli-US Strikes

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has ruled Iran since 1989, has been killed by Israeli-US strikes on his compound in Tehran, as announced by Iranian TV—1:23 mark of the video below…

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a month ago · 67 likes · 16 comments · Simplicius

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I also had my debut on Tommy’s Podcast yesterday. We talked a little bit about Iran (with the information we had yesterday morning), but we spent more time on the future of the US, why we are optimistic despite all of the problems we have, and the potential for an American Golden Age. If you want something to listen to on some of the big picture problems, but also the opportunities, we have here in the US, you might find it interesting.

Esgian Rig Webinar

For anyone interested in offshore oil services, this one is definitely worth a watch. They shared their outlook for the drillship market and where things stand after the recent announcement of the Transocean - Valaris deal, and pointed out that all six of the 7G drillships that are currently cold stacked will be owned by Transocean after the deal closes. They talked about the nuances of the setup for drillships compared to semisubmersibles and harsh environment semisubs, which is a little different for each category as far as contracting and utilization. The other thing worth highlighting is that there are no new drillship orders, and when do start seeing those, they will probably take $1B or more and will be at least 5 years to deliver. For quarterly updates on the sector, Esgian is definitely worth a follow when it comes to offshore.

Mining Stock Daily w/ Jamie Holman

For anyone interested in the ongoing capital rotation, this one is the one for you. They talk about how software as a service is being disrupted by AI, the CAPEX explosion for the hyperscalers, and where money is going to flow next. This has been leading to the revenge of the old economy that some people have been talking about for a couple years, and the structural deficits that are built into many commodities. They also covered the changing market perception for some of the smaller mining companies, the large streaming/royalty deals that have happened recently, and how none of the miners are pricing in spot for the metals. The other interesting development is Tether’s involvement in gold specifically, along with some of the royalty companies. The last piece they touched on was critical minerals, the Vault Project, and why the government support for some of these projects is bipartisan in the wartime economy we find ourselves in.

Three Company Updates

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The other thing I found interesting on tariffs was that Cantor Fitzgerald (aka Howard Lutnick) has been busy buying up tariff refund rights for pennies on the dollar. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised when Cantor Fitzgerald was also buying airline stock puts before 9/11, but I digress. We have also seen the buildup of US military assets in the Middle East and rumblings about potential strikes on Iran. You have people talking about the Strait of Hormuz again, which probably means we are due for a pause in oil after the rally over the last month. Mark Wauck’s piece below on the geopolitical happenings is definitely worth a read. Private credit is also back in the spotlight again with Blue Owl Capital, and I still think that private equity and private credit is a toxic asset class on average. Whether it is systemic or not is to be determined, but when Jamie Dimon has openly talked about cockroaches in the sector, he probably knows what he is talking about.

Money Of Mine w/ Craig Tindale

This was the best podcast of the week, and for anyone interested in the supply chains for the different metals, it’s a must listen. Over the last several decades, the efficient pricing model has hollowed out Western economies, specifically for the supply chain for the different metals. State capitalism has given China pricing power, and they are now in a dominant position when it comes to silver refining, rare earths, and the ability to handle zinc and copper concentrates, just to name a few. This feeds into our industrial sector, impacting everything from car production to the defense sector and other manufacturing capability.

Value Hive w/ Tomasz Nadrowski

If you didn’t get enough with the first podcast, this one is the perfect follow up. Nadrowski runs a fund focused on the mining sector, and they invest exclusively outside of China. He talked about the bifurcation of the mining sector, and how the focus on NPV in the West has allowed China to dominate the supply chain for the metals sector. China Northern, China Rare Earths, and Shanghai Resources as the three main players in China, which has allowed the Chinese government to control different parts of the value chain, specifically their dominance in the refining space. I think 99% of America has no idea how far behind the US is on this front, but I think we will be able to figure it out.

Earnings Quick Hits

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I don’t think there’s a business on Earth that I would lend to for 100 years, especially in fiat currency, but I thought that was an interesting signpost on where things are for the AI spending. One thing I will say is that I have started using some of the different free versions recently, and they are a dramatic improvement over traditional search. Also, if you haven’t watched my podcast with on Transocean’s acquisition of Valaris , that should now be available for all subscribers.

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John Polomny’s Weekly Update

Like always, John’s weekly updates are a must watch. He talks about his contrarian view on global economies heating up, stimulative fiscal/monetary policy, and why growth will surprise to the upside. He also gave an update on Uranium, the recent Transocean acquisition of Valaris, nickel prices, and why we are going to start seeing M&A heat up in the gold miner space. My favorite part every week is when he gets into the political side of things, but he always gives investors a lot to think about and shares what he is paying attention to.

The Business Brew w/ Will Thomson

For a 30,000 foot view and the commodities space, this is the best podcast I have listened to recently. They covered the complex and changing problems in commodities, how policy impacts the different sectors, and how central banks and manipulated interest rates has driven the misallocation of capital. Other factors they talked about was the permitting and regulatory environment, the West’s NIMBY approach to resources (at least until recently in the US), and offshoring many different commodity based industries and supply chains.

At the same time, the West was pushing towards renewables away from traditional forms of energy. We are now starting to repeal of the tax incentives and benefits here in the US for solar and wind. He pointed out that the West hasn’t reinvested in our infrastructure in a significant way for more than fifty years. They also got into several industries, from oil, how they look at gold and the miners, and the shift in copper from a demand driven story to a supply squeeze that is rapidly approaching if it isn’t already here. It’s definitely worth a listen and will give you food for thought on several topics on financial markets and commodities.

Peter McCormack

Nick Fuentes vs The World - No Country for Old Rules

I watched the Piers Morgan v Nick Fuentes interview last night, convinced that Piers had done a fairly solid job. After scanning Twitter (meh, X), I had to go and watch it again…

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4 months ago · 247 likes · 96 comments · Peter McCormack

The first video on broader financial markets was far and away the best video I watched this week. If you want a look at the intersection of the AI race, the US reshoring the industrial base, and the real value of the US Treasury market, that one is for you. The last one is a lightning round look at financial markets, mainly focused on commodities, with a bunch of different hedge fund managers. They share some interesting individual stock ideas while they are at it.

For anyone interested in Millennial Potash, I wanted to share the post below and the short video. The post from the company is their outlook for potash in 2026, and for anyone that owns the stock or is interested in the company, it’s worth the two minutes it takes to read. Also, it’s worth remembering that the video was paid for by the company, but they talk a little bit more about the feasibility study, environmental study, and what they company has in store for 2026.

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Millennial Potash

Tariffs, Contracts, and a New Floor: The Potash Outlook for 2026

Potash Market Outlook 2026: Entering the Era of Disciplined Equilibrium…

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4 months ago · 2 likes · 1 comment · Millennial Potash

Monetary Matters w/ Luke Gromen

For the 30,000 foot view of financial markets, this one is a must watch. Gromen lays out why the US has to focus on the AI race with China and reshoring our industrial base, and why policy makers will probably sacrifice the dollar and Treasury market to do it. The US has to choose a path, because we can’t have our cake and eat it too. He points out that we have to reverse the cycle of the last several decades (US trades dollars for goods with foreign countries, and they recycle the dollars into our capital markets), because it has hollowed out our industrial base and large swaths of the country’s middle class.

We also have to address the grid, the supply chain for rare earths and other physical materials, along with the AI race, but you can’t do all of that and without creating issues for Treasuries. They also talk about policy uncertainty, and how it is extremely difficult for large businesses to pull the trigger on factories or large scale industrial projects that payback over decades. They also talked about gold, silver, and bitcoin. He talked about gold be the safe haven asset that wins during inflation and deflation, and how it’s the only asset on the board that does that. They also covered silver, but he shared a couple reasons he is more pessimistic on bitcoin now than he was several months ago. They covered a lot of ground, but this one should be at the top of the queue if you haven’t watched it already.

Money Of Mine - Best Picks For 2026 (Part 1 & 2)

I don’t have a long summary for this two part video. They invited a bunch of fund managers on to answer four rapid fire questions:

• Their highest conviction call, often individual ideas.

• Their most non-consensus view.

• What they think the best performing commodity will be in 2026.

• What they think the worst performing commodity will be in 2026.

Goehring & Rozencwagj Q3 2025: Moving From Carry To Anti Carry

To go back to the discussion I had last week on fixing all the world’s problems, I think it deserves a full post, but Trump alluded to one of the potential improvements in a tweet on Thanksgiving talking about pausing migration, ending all benefits to noncitizens, and reverse migration. With stuff like this, talk is cheap, but Bessent came out recently about cutting off federal benefits for noncitizens. It’s hard to give them the benefit of the doubt after some of the other stuff that has happened this year, but this is going to be one of the most important issues in next year’s midterm elections. At the end of the day, the golden rule is to ignore what they say, and pay attention to what they do.

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The J. Burden Show w/ Stormy Waters

I know that politics is a topic that some people avoid for Thanksgiving, but I think the topics from this video will be some of the main things to watch for US politics in 2026, specifically for the Republican Party (or what’s left of it). If the Trump administration doesn’t make some major changes, the midterms next year are probably going to be ugly. They talk about the different conservative factions fighting for control, and how the federal government continues to lose legitimacy in the eyes of the public.

One of the other topics worth bringing up, which seems to be getting more attention these days, is the divide between the younger generations and the older generations, specifically for conservatives or people on the right. They also covered the widening gap between Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes, and other figures on the right that have been rising in influence, and guys like Mark Levin, Ben Shapiro, and other neoconservative figures that are quickly becoming irrelevant. The Overton Window keeps shifting, and I think the midterms next year could be pretty interesting.

Macro Voices w/ Laskhman Achuthan

If you want a look at markets and economies from a 30,000 foot view, this one is worth a watch. They discuss economic regime change, inflation, and the K-shaped economy. Coming into 2025, they were expecting a slowdown in growth but not a hard landing, with inflation sticky but not spiraling out of control. More recently, they have seen their forward indicators for growth ticking up, from July through September. One of the reasons they think inflation will stay under control is because the broad economy (outside of the K-shaped economy) and middle class can’t handle it.

They also talk about global industrial growth cycles and oil, and their forward indicators pointing to those cycles starting to turn up. Sensitive industrial materials prices moving up as a group, and breadth is improving, and it would be unusual for oil to not participate in that eventually. It might be awhile, but their future inflation gauges are not an issue for now.

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Money Of Mine w/ PauloMacro

This was my favorite video of the week because it hits on a bunch of different commodities that I think are worth a look right now. In the last commodities cycle in the 2000s, the rising tide of Chinese demand was lifting all boats as far as commodities were concerned. Now it’s more sporadic where different commodities work at different times (Paulo calls it rolling crackups). The first commodity they discussed was copper, and the importance of the Grasberg mine collapse. It will be interesting to see what happens with supply and demand over the next couple years, but they also hit on COMEX copper vs. the LME, the impact of tariffs, and the importance of jurisdiction.

Uranium was one that I have been digging into some more this weekend, partially because of this video. They didn’t talk much about any specific names, but they did get into the potential for a strategic uranium reserve or a potential price floor to incentivize US production. The last and most interesting part for me was on oil. Paulo thinks oil in 2026 will be like gold in 2025. The Saudis have been unwinding their production cuts, and we are seeing inventory builds, but I don’t think we will see anything close to what the EIA is projecting. He points out that China has been filling up their tanks, and if they thought we were going below $50 a barrel, they probably wouldn’t be at record inventory levels. A lot of the equities have also been showing signs of life, and I’ll talk more about the topic in my video tomorrow.

Oil Ground Up w/ Francisco Monaldi

There has been a lot of chatter about what is going on in South America with Venezuela, and this podcast is a timely one for anyone interested in energy and geopolitics. They talk about the ongoing military buildup, and why the motivation is probably closer to regime change instead of drug operations. There have been some changes in sanction policy in recent years, and they discuss which companies are in the clear to operate in Venezuela (primarily Chevron).

A lot has changed with the energy industry in Venezuela over the last two decades. The US was receiving 2M barrels a day from Venezuela in the late 90s, and that is down to a trickle with Chevron getting a small amount into the US. Most of their exports go to China due to sanctions, at a steep discount due to the crude quality. In recent years, their crude sometimes traded at a 30% discount to Brent, and by the time they laundered the cash (due to sanctions), they might only be receiving 50% of Brent for a barrel of oil. They also talk about how things could play out from here, what might happen to Maduro, and how it will impact Venezuela’s oil production.

I don’t care how, or if it’s technically against the law, people on the right and left have realized that our political system isn’t exactly functional. He who saves a nation violates no law. I don’t think Mamdani is going to fix much of anything (he shouldn’t have even been eligible to run for office), but the reason that politics is more intense is that people realize that it’s existential now. It’s turned into a zero sum game, and even if you’re not interested in politics, politics is interested in you.

Part of the problem is that the US is so polarized that the two major groups basically have views and agendas that are completely incompatible. People on the so-called right wing have just started to figure this out over the last five years, and the left has been playing to win for a lot longer than that. All of this is why I think we will eventually get a Caesar figure, because I don’t think we fix a bunch of the problems we have by jumping through the existing bureaucratic or political hoops.

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AIA Weekly Update

For anyone looking for a mix of current events and financial markets, ’s video this week is definitely worth a watch. He spent some time on the recent elections, and he explains why we shouldn’t be surprised to see more figures like Mamdani in politics moving forward. Just look at the median age of first time home buyers, or student loan debt, or a variety of other issues.

On the financial markets side, he talked about how overhyped AI is right now, and how many of the large companies spending the most aren’t seeing returns from those investments. He also talked about which assets perform well during inflationary or stagflationary periods, and some different areas of the market he is watching. He also talked about oil services starting to perk up, and why global growth is his contrarian bet for 2026. His weekly recaps are always entertaining and educational at the same time, and this one is worth your time.

The Business Brew w/ Matthew Quigley

For any football fans out there, you will find this one interesting. I have talked about the financialization of the US, but this one was eye opening as far as the changing landscape of college football. They talk about changes from NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness), how college athletes are getting paid, and how athletes can get insurance for future earning potential. I have mixed feelings on the changes that have happened to college football, but this podcast has a perspective from the business angle and will definitely give listeners something to think about.

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Thoughtful Money w/ Peter Turchin

This was my favorite video of the week, and I had a subscriber mention this one to me yesterday. Turchin’s book, End Times, has been recommended to me on a podcast, and I’m definitely looking forward to reading it in the future. This video will be a bit of a preview, but he explains why he thinks the US is in a revolutionary period. There is a new counter elite coming to power, and they are trying to replace the existing power structure and change the culture of the society. He explains why he thinks Trump’s second term is more important than Democrat or Republican, because he’s going against the existing bureaucracy. They cover some of the main drivers of instability for a society, elite surplus, wealth inequality (which he thinks has been at a tipping point since 2016), and immiseration.

He points out that mass migration has a very strong effect on immiseration, and if you oversupply labor, it drives down wages. It also has an impact on culture, and if government cares more about immigration than workers, that impacts the legitimacy of the state in the eyes of the population. He thinks US is a more dire state than France, Japan (not enough young people), or the UK. None of the trends he saw starting in 2010 are reversing, and he thinks turbulent times are coming if the trends continue. He talks about some of the potential fixes for these trends, but he thinks that violence is the most likely outcome from here. This one doesn’t focus directly on markets, but it covers some interesting topics to think about for investors.

The ZeroHedge Oil Debate

For anyone looking for multiple different perspectives on the oil and energy markets, this one is for you. I’ll summarize each guest’s view briefly, but their views definitely provide food for thought. Arjun Murti thinks we are in the bottoming phase for oil and that the worst is behind us. That doesn’t mean we won’t see another 5-10 bucks on the downside, but he doesn’t agree with the massive oversupply that the EIA is projecting. He thinks the setup is more for super volatility, not a super cycle, but he thinks the best days for shale are behind us, and OPEC has brought most of their spare capacity back online.

Paul Sankey pointed that we recently hit an all time high on oil demand, and he is expecting a low in Q1 of 2026, and he is bullish after that. He thinks that the equities have more than discounted the risks in the oil price, and that the US is out of inventory that looks attractive at $60 a barrel. He does point out that Trump wants lower oil, but calls for $40 a barrel are like $30 a barrel in 2016, and extremely bearish arguments on oil will struggle against inflation. Mike McGlone is more bearish, and he is still expecting that we will visit $40 as the low price cure. I’m not sure if Bloomberg is allowed to be bullish on oil, but it is still in a downtrend, and McGlone pointed out that oil has bottomed near $40 three times in the last couple decades. They also talked about natural gas, LNG, nuclear energy, and other topics related to energy, but it’s definitely worth a watch for anyone thinking about the energy sector.

On the oil side, we had a nice rally this week after we got news that Trump would be targeting Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil with sanctions. We will see what happens from here on sanctions, and if it has any impact on the conflict in Ukraine, but I think it is a good time to start taking at ideas in the energy space. We got a pretty sizable move in some of the energy stocks last week, but the whole sector is still cheap and out of favor. The video below goes into detail on some of the topics worth thinking about as far as sentiment, positioning, and the narrative on the expected oil surplus from now into 2026.

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Wall Street For Main Street w/ Elliot Gue

The sentiment on energy, specifically oil, has been awful for most of 2025, and it doesn’t seem like that is going to change before the end of the year. Gue points out that the sentiment you have now is not what you see at the start of prolonged bear markets, and it’s close to as hated as it has been near other oil price bottoms. He points out that the projected IEA surplus of more than 4 million barrels a day would be bigger than the oversupply during the shutdowns in 2020.

They also talked about several individual names, and why they expect continued M&A in the Permian Basin. Offshore exploration and trends was another focus, and they explained why any potential new supply won’t come online fast enough. The energy transition, or electric vehicles, aren’t going to put a big enough dent in oil demand either. He thinks it might take some time for oil to really get moving, but the setup for 2026 looks pretty attractive to me. If you’re interested in energy, or buying out of favor investments, this one is worth a watch.

Weekly Roundup w/ Hunter Hopcroft

For anyone interested in the financialization of the economy, this is the podccast for you. They talk about several things I have covered before, as well as a couple things that are outside of my wheelhouse. Whether its distortions created by passive investing, or the short term dislocations created by large multi-asset managers, the last several years have seen major structural changes in financial markets. They also talked about how private credit and private equity have created new incentives for debt and equity markets, and how it impacts the allocation of capital.

Another thing they got into was the lack of trust in institutions, whether it’s the media or financial institutions. My favorite chart they shared talked about the “Boomer retirement complex”, which looks at Social Security and Medicare, Home Equity, and Wages as a percent of GDP. They point out that the chart above is how you get Mamdani in New York. I’m not a fan of Mamdani or his politics, and I don’t think he should even be in the country in the first place (that’s a topic for another time), but if you don’t see wages start to rise, he’s not going to be the only politician of his ilk to appear in coming years.

I have started to take a look at a couple miners, including one that a subscriber said I should take a look at. I’m not in any hurry to buy anything precious metals related after the run over the last couple months, but I think there are still plenty of opportunities if you think that we are in for a durable precious metals bull market (like I do). The move in precious metals over the last couple months makes me a little uneasy, because if we keep rallying at this rate, I will start to wonder if something underneath the surface is different this time.

It fits in with the “debasement trade” that I have been hearing about nonstop for the last month or so. I like to think I’m pretty good at pattern recognition, but I start to take notice any time I start hearing the same topic or phrase repeatedly. Earlier this year it was the end of US exceptionalism, and a couple years ago it was safe and effective. From there, it goes back to the question “Why I am hearing (or reading about) this now?” Just some food for thought, and the mainstream media sources that focus on politics aren’t the only news sources with an agenda.

Venezuela: The Latest Geopolitical Issue

On the geopolitical side, I keep hearing more and more about Venezuela in the last month or so. It has been easy bounce from one geopolitical topic to the next in 2025, whether it’s tariffs in April, Iran and Israel, Ukraine and Putin’s trip to Alaska, and now Venezuela. I’m curious to see if this blows over relatively quickly, or if it turns into something bigger. There’s some debate on if this is about oil, or drugs, ties to China, or some other motivation, but it’s safe to say that the US is looking to exert influence over the Western Hemisphere.

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TFTC w/ Luke Gromen

This was my favorite podcast of the week, and Marty does a good job asking a couple original questions on where things might be heading. They spent a lot of time focused on US and China relations, and why China has more leverage than some of the so-called experts in the West might think. Gromen points out that gold’s recent move is saying something about the current situation. They get into the importance of rare earth inputs for military technology, the US taking a good hard look at the supply chain for rare earth metals, and why he thinks it’s not aggressive enough.

He also said that if we got the worst case economic outcome of a complete split with China, the Treasury market would blow up in a week. It would be the April tariff tantrum but worse. They also covered Bitcoin, and how stablecoins have played an important role in providing demand for short term treasuries. The most interesting line from the podcast discussed the end of the dollar, and how gold and the dollar going up together is the signpost to look for. It won’t happen tomorrow, but that’s how he thinks it will happen. If you need some food for thought about several big picture financial system changes, this one is for you.

Hidden Forces w/ Dan Wang

This one isn’t focused directly on financial markets, but it is a great comparison of two competing civilizations of the US and China. Wang lays out his view that China is an engineering society while the US has turned into a legal society since the 1960s. He gets into the different societal attitudes towards problems, and how the hyperfinancialized economy of the US compares to China, which is more focused on building things. The competition between the US and China is shaping up to be an important issue in coming years, and this podcast is worth a listen for anyone interested in that topic.

One of the things that I found interesting last week that was overshadowed by the tariff news late in the week was the First Brands bankruptcy. I’m not going to call it a Lehman moment, but I think it does provide an interesting example of some of the toxic sludge that is in Private Equity, Private Credit, and CLOs. The First Brands org chart does remind me a little bit of the Value Village audit I was on a while back (which wasn’t nearly as bad as this), but I think it will be interesting to keep an eye on asset management companies and BDCs over the next couple months. I have included a couple articles (not paywalled) that are worth a read.

Creditors Of Bankrupt First Brands Say Billions “Simply Vanished” Amid Debt Rehypothecation Nightmare

Morgan Stanley’s 3 Lessons From The Shocking Collapse Of First Brands

I also wanted to highlight something completely unrelated to markets for any baseball fans out there. I have been a long suffering Mariners fan, and on Friday they gave me a good distraction from markets by pulling out a win in 15 innings against the Tigers. I was six years old the last time the Mariners made it to the ALCS, and I’m hoping they can make it to their first World Series.

Gold Goats n’ Guns w/ Vince Lanci

I only have one podcast this week, but if you’re even a little bit interested in precious metals, it’s worth a listen. Vince is one of my favorites to listen to on gold and silver, and Tom does a good job of connecting the geopolitical dots for listeners. They get into why silver spot prices are trading at a premium (and why that is very unusual), and the recent run in precious metals that signals something has changed. For anyone interested in the intersection of markets, geopolitics, precious metals, and current events, you will definitely learn a couple things from this one.

Sable Offshore: Decision Time

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Entering the Fall w/ David Einhorn

This was my favorite video of the week, and it was from Simplify Asset Management’s Fall conference. It was a discussion between Mike Green and David Einhorn on the various changes in financial markets. They talked about the abandonment of valuation as a focal point of markets, how passive is eating the market (active management is down to 10% of the volume), and why the market doesn’t have as many investors that push securities towards fair value. Einhorn talks about why investors need to focus on dividends and buybacks from the underlying business to return capital to investors if nobody cares about a stock, and why you can’t count on buyers showing up to by at a higher price.

They also covered some of the major tech stocks and how the capital investment in AI and data centers does show some comparison to the dot com bubble. They have become much more capital intensive than the capital light businesses that they used to be, and it has become a circular economy where no one knows what kind of return will come from it. Another topic was the potential issues in private equity and private credit, and how they aren’t marking to market. Policy makers are unaware of all this (or they don’t care), and the SEC is asleep at the wheel. There are a bunch of structural issues with financial markets today, and they joked that the emperor has no clothes and nobody cares. This one is definitely worth your time if you’re interested in some of the distortions in financial markets.

The Competent Man w/ Vince Lanci

For anyone more interested in gold and geopolitics, you will like this one. They talked about the importance of the geopolitical tension between the US and China, and how gold factors into that calculus. The US needs to rebuild our manufacturing base and Vince points out how we are vulnerable to a recession. He also talks about the high equity valuations in the US, and why policy signs point to the US leaning towards inflation. They also covered stablecoins, and how it could support the US dollar. There were several other topics but for anyone interested in the big picture, it’s worth a listen.

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Focused Compounding on Moats in Commodities

I talked to Andrew on this topic a while back, and I finally got around to listening to this podcast this week. They talk about some of the different things they look at for commodity producers, the cyclical nature of most commodities, and some examples of companies that have been long term outperformers. They also covered some of the commodities that I haven’t dug into as much, from the agricultural commodities to a couple cement producers. For a high level look at commodity producers, this one is definitely worth your time.

AIA Weekly Update

’s weekly update from yesterday is definitely worth a watch. He talked about the bifurcated economy and deficit spending, two trends that don’t show any sign of slowing down. He also got into the various commodities, and why we are starting to see moves across the board. For precious metals, he explained why he is a long term bull, and how the sector is overbought short term. Coal has also started to wake up, and copper had a big move after a mudslide at Freeport’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia.

Oil also had a nice move last week, and he got into why energy is the best performer in inflationary environments. He also talked about uranium, how renewable energy is a boondoggle compared to other sources of energy, and how he saw it firsthand in his career. I look forward to these every weekend, and readers will definitely stay up to date and learn a thing or two from watching these updates.

I’ll save readers that are interested the trouble of watching the whole thing. The section on Sable starts at 13 minutes, and they talk about the permit transfer. At 19 minutes, they start talking about federal intervention and the possibility of using an FPSO to bypass the pipeline. You can tell by their reaction that they aren’t thrilled about the idea. We will see what happens from here, but the talk of federal involvement is making the rounds in the California media space.

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The Market Huddle w/ Porter Collins & Vincent Daniel

For anyone interested in broader markets, this one is a must watch (and their new Substack, What Are We Doing?, is a must follow). They talk about the intersection of Trump, tariffs, and how market structure has changed in recent years. They got into how they are expressing their bearishness on the market, and the expectation for continued debasement through gold and gold miners, along with other commodities sectors. The most interesting part for me was how the market has been changed by a couple factors, from ETFs and passive flows to the multi-manager / pod shops, and how it leads to small cap opportunities that get ignored by big institutional money.

I agree with their view that on a long enough timeframe, yield curve control and quantitative easing are inevitable. They also talked about Luke Gromen’s view on the S&P becoming a matter of national security, and why price discovery isn’t allowed in these markets (too big to fail if you will). At the end they got into crypto, and highlighted an important point on how stablecoins have connected bitcoin and ethereum (and other major cryptos) to the treasury market. This one will definitely give listeners something to think about, no matter what your view on markets might be.

Oil Ground Up w/ Ilia Bouchouev

The other podcast of the week is also on market structure, this time focused specifically on the oil market. Fundamentals still matter, but how other factors have started to play a role in oil markets. He talked about how paper barrels and financial market trading drives oil prices and the two waves of financialization that have increased futures volume over the last couple decades. This has been driven by algorithms, commodity trading advisors (trend following), and fast money, and he describes how changes in positioning from institutional money are the largest driver of short term moves in oil prices. He doesn’t think that oil prices go below $50 regardless of the size of a potential oversupply because of the financialization of the market. At the end of the day, it’s an asset that is cheap in a world of expensive assets. It’s an interesting take, but for anyone interested in energy, this one is worth a listen.

The bill, which would take effect in January, reasserts the authority of the commission to oversee pipeline repair projects and requires the “best available technology” for any pipe transporting petroleum from offshore. That could add lengthy governmental reviews for Sable if the operation isn’t running by January….

Mary Nichols, an attorney at UCLA Law’s Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, said the bill probably wouldn’t affect the ongoing project off Santa Barbara County’s coast — which remains tied up in litigation — but makes clear that there’s no easy path for any other company looking to take advantage of offshore oil in federal waters under the oil-friendly Trump administration.

“This was designed to send a message to anybody else who might be thinking about doing the same thing,” said Nichols, a former chair of the California Air Resources Board.

- California legislators strike last-minute deal to help oil industry but limit offshore drilling

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Oilfield 360 w/ Kaes Van’t Hof

A friend sent me this podcast last week, and for anyone interested in the US oil industry, it’s worth a listen. Van’t Hof tells the story of how he got to be CEO of Diamondback, and the story of growing the company to one of the main players in the Permian Basin. He talked about his experience on the contract drilling side of things, and why geologic headwinds outweigh productivity and cost tailwinds for US production. They get into questions for the future of the company over the next several decades, and the challenges of balancing the quarterly focus with the long term goals.

In The Money w/ Adam Waterous

If you’re interested in Canadian oil sands and the bidding war for MEG Energy, this one will be interesting. Waterous is the CEO of Strathcona (so he might be a little bit biased), but he talked about their increased bid for MEG. He also shared his thoughts on the MEG board, their poor corporate governance, and the competing Cenovus offer. They got into how a larger SAGD business would benefit from the MEG assets along with his thoughts on future M&A. He shared his view on the regulatory issues in Canada and what he sees for the future of Canadian energy. Again, he has a dog in the fight so to speak, so feel free to take what he is saying with a grain of salt, but I thought it was interesting to hear his perspective on the deal.

MacroVoices w/ Anas Alhajji

If you want the high level view of the macro environment for oil, this is the one for you. They talked about the OPEC group of 8 unwinding the production cut, and what was the trigger for the unwinding. Alhajji points out that there are only four countries that can increase production: the Saudis, UAE, Iraq and Kuwait. He also goes into why the ability to increase production for Iraq and Kuwait is limited. The EIA and IEA forecasts and adjustments were another topic, which shows the circular nature of the news cycle when it comes to oil. They also discussed the crosscurrents between tariffs, sanctions, and trade wars for LNG. For investors interested in energy, you might take away a couple things to think about.

Sable Offshore: 237 Passes & OSFM Approaches

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Robotti & Co. Mid Year Meeting

There are some podcasts or videos that skip to the top of the queue, and the updates from Bob Robotti fall in that category. They always have interesting ideas, and their focus on valuation and the capital cycle is something that is worth keeping an eye on with where markets are today. They talk about some of the advantages in certain industries for businesses located in North America, particularly with the domestic chemical companies. They also get into portfolio management, position sizing, and what they focus on when buying and selling. For anyone interested in cyclical sectors, this one is a must watch.

Rogue News w/ Veles

I have been doing weekly appearances on RogueNews lately, but whenever Veles is on the show, it’s a must watch. They bounced around several different topics, but it was interesting on several fronts.

• Private equity’s focus on infrastructure assets, and the high valuations of some of those assets.

• The end of Bretton Woods, and the shifting alliances in the political world.

• Why we might see more violent outbursts like the one in Minnesota.

• The RFK hearing, and how important it was (if you can only listen to one section, skip to 24:30 and listen to this one).

• The government destroying documents related to COVID and the vaccine.

For anyone looking for rabbit holes, take notes.

Quick Thoughts On Sable

I won’t be doing the full rundown again, but I have been getting enough questions that I wanted to touch on a couple points.

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